3048 Lucille Ave · McAllen, TX 78503

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2018 4,769 sqft lot $164/sqft · at area comps Est $164k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME HOME! This charming abode features 3 cozy bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms and is nestled in a delightful family-oriented neighborhood. The curb appeal is scaled for the grandest of homes with its circular driveway and elegant covered front patio that perfectly frames your new front entrance. The best design combines form and function with personality which perfectly describes your new living space with its tile floors, decorative ceiling and arched pass throughs to the bedrooms and kitchen. Kitchen design anchors the home as is evidenced by your granite countertops and crisp white cabinetry. Embrace the warmth of this inviting neighborhood community and enjoy the comfort and convenience this lovely house has to offer. Do not miss the chance to call this place your HOME SWEET HOME! MAKE YOUR OFFER TODAY!

Key facts

• Decorative ceilings
• Arched pass-throughs
• Covered front patio

Tags

• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• TILE FLOORING
• DECORATIVE CEILINGS
• ARCHED PASS-THROUGHS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.11 acre (about 4,770 sq ft); Building area reported as 1,036 (units not displayed per instructions)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage or carport
• Utilities: City sewer; Cable available; Public water
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Slab foundation; No construction material information provided
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Paved road access; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric smooth-top range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countertops; Ceiling fans; Decorative / high ceilings; Mini blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($549/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in McAllen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcallen ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #440 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Houston El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 378 students, 87% FRL); Brown Middle (math 24% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 585 students, 90% FRL); Memorial H S (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,080 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 50% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,303 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,047
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 3.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3504 Rosalva Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+8%)	2mo	$165,000	$148	62
5610 S 28th Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,158 (+12%)	2mo	$183,000	$158	53
3317 Olga Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+12%)	21mo	$159,999	$138	49
2416 Daytona Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	950 (-8%)	8mo	$139,000	$146	48
3017 Wanda Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	6mo	$175,000	$152	43
5803 S 27th Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,158 (+12%)	6mo	$169,000	$146	43
3113 Daytona Ave	0.38mi	3/3.0	888 (-14%)	10mo	$110,000	$124	42
5602 S 28th Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,158 (+12%)	22mo	$172,500	$149	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-29,264
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-39,673
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78503

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,107/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,545

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $94	+0% $46	+5% $-2	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-81	-5% $-18	+0% $46	+5% $109	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $89	base $46	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3409 Elmira Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,650	$1.40	16d	1	0.34mi
3411 Elmira Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,650	$1.40	45d	1	0.35mi
2401 Lucille Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,550	$1.36	45d	1	0.57mi
2500 S Ware Rd Unit 34 McAllen, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$800	$1.10	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $169,900 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Option 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Option 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Option 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $169,900 Option 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Option 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Option 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Option 34 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Option 33 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $169,900 Option 32 DOM
11. 2026-04-28
    listed $169,900 Active 708-char remark
12. 2023-10-05
    soldstatus
13. 2023-09-01
    soldstatus Sold 819-char remark

    Show marketing remark (819 chars)

    WELCOME HOME! This charming abode features 3 cozy bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms and is nestled in a delightful family-oriented neighborhood. The curb appeal is scaled for the grandest of homes with its circular driveway and elegant covered front patio that perfectly frames your new front entrance. The best design combines form and function with personality which perfectly describes your new living space with its tile floors, decorative ceiling and arched pass throughs to the bedrooms and kitchen. Kitchen design anchors the home as is evidenced by your granite countertops and crisp white cabinetry. Embrace the warmth of this inviting neighborhood community and enjoy the comfort and convenience this lovely house has to offer. Do not miss the chance to call this place your HOME SWEET HOME! MAKE YOUR OFFER TODAY!

14. 2023-08-08
    status Pending 819-char remark

    Show marketing remark (819 chars)

    WELCOME HOME! This charming abode features 3 cozy bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms and is nestled in a delightful family-oriented neighborhood. The curb appeal is scaled for the grandest of homes with its circular driveway and elegant covered front patio that perfectly frames your new front entrance. The best design combines form and function with personality which perfectly describes your new living space with its tile floors, decorative ceiling and arched pass throughs to the bedrooms and kitchen. Kitchen design anchors the home as is evidenced by your granite countertops and crisp white cabinetry. Embrace the warmth of this inviting neighborhood community and enjoy the comfort and convenience this lovely house has to offer. Do not miss the chance to call this place your HOME SWEET HOME! MAKE YOUR OFFER TODAY!

15. 2023-07-31
    historical Option 819-char remark

    Show marketing remark (819 chars)

    WELCOME HOME! This charming abode features 3 cozy bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms and is nestled in a delightful family-oriented neighborhood. The curb appeal is scaled for the grandest of homes with its circular driveway and elegant covered front patio that perfectly frames your new front entrance. The best design combines form and function with personality which perfectly describes your new living space with its tile floors, decorative ceiling and arched pass throughs to the bedrooms and kitchen. Kitchen design anchors the home as is evidenced by your granite countertops and crisp white cabinetry. Embrace the warmth of this inviting neighborhood community and enjoy the comfort and convenience this lovely house has to offer. Do not miss the chance to call this place your HOME SWEET HOME! MAKE YOUR OFFER TODAY!

16. 2023-07-26
    listed $149,900 Active 819-char remark

    Show marketing remark (819 chars)

    WELCOME HOME! This charming abode features 3 cozy bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms and is nestled in a delightful family-oriented neighborhood. The curb appeal is scaled for the grandest of homes with its circular driveway and elegant covered front patio that perfectly frames your new front entrance. The best design combines form and function with personality which perfectly describes your new living space with its tile floors, decorative ceiling and arched pass throughs to the bedrooms and kitchen. Kitchen design anchors the home as is evidenced by your granite countertops and crisp white cabinetry. Embrace the warmth of this inviting neighborhood community and enjoy the comfort and convenience this lovely house has to offer. Do not miss the chance to call this place your HOME SWEET HOME! MAKE YOUR OFFER TODAY!

17. 2017-05-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,107 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$3,107
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$2,257
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$542
• After-tax cash flow: $1,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcallen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829670
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,805
• Composite: 33.16/100
• National rank: #5551
• State rank: #440 of 826 in TX

Livability — McAllen

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McAllen, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,621
• Household income: $53,322
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 762.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 92% Two or more races 34% White 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada
• Languages at home: 13% English-only · Spanish 86%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.15%
• Current HPI: 208.4757
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.21%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-30 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $169,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-09-01 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-08-08 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-07-31 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-07-26 Listed $149,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2017-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,107 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.