1409 E Santa Gertrudis St · Kingsville, TX 78363

$43,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1955 9,749 sqft lot Est $69k · 38% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks! Investor special with tons of potential. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is ideally located near a school and sits on a main road, offering excellent visibility and convenience. Situated on a generously sized lot with a spacious backyard, there's plenty of room for future improvements. Perfect opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value!

Key facts

• Excellent visibility
• Spacious backyard
• Generously sized lot

Tags

• EXCELLENT VISIBILITY
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($896 rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 5.4% in Kingsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#364 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Kingsville ISD (town): math 13% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #800 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 24 units permitted in Kleberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kleberg County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,420 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.18%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,904
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1409 E Santa Gertrudis St	0.00mi	2/1.0	792 (0%)	1mo	$43,000	$54	99
118 E Fairview Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	908 (+15%)	5mo	$79,000	$87	56
813 E B Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	720 (-9%)	6mo	$72,000	$100	51
811 E B Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	880 (+11%)	6mo	$65,000	$74	42
1611 E Fordyce Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	910 (+15%)	16mo	$139,900	$154	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $21,388
• Equity at exit: $6,411

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $67,729
• Equity at exit: $3,718

Cash invested: $12,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78363

• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $896 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $411

Max offer price $43,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,750
• Closing costs: $1,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
910 E Doddridge Ave Unit 1 Kingsville, TX	2.0	1.0	585	$650	$1.11	44d	1	1.03mi
908 E Doddridge Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	1.03mi
200 W Yoakum Ave Kingsville, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$563	$0.80	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   price $43,000
3. 2026-02-05
   listed $50,000 Active
4. 2011-01-07
   soldstatus
5. 2008-05-08
   soldstatus
6. 2007-10-29
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $974 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $974 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,409
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$860
• − Management: −$860
• − Depreciation: −$1,251
• Taxable income: $4,181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $3,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825680
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,308
• Composite: 14.5/100
• National rank: #9425
• State rank: #800 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #364
• US rank: #7787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsville, TX
• County: Kleberg County · 28,920 people
• City population: 28,920
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,920
• Household income: $60,574
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Kleberg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,615 people
• By 2030: 32,054 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 33,008 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 34,536 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 40,931 · +29.5%
• By 2100: 46,001 · +45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 36% White 20% Black 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kleberg

• 2024 margin: R (+12.7) · D 43.3% · R 56.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 7.2pp · 2024: -12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.7 2020: R+1.7 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+7.8 2008: D+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.12%
• Current HPI: 147.6473
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — CBMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $43,000 CBMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $50,000 CBMLS
• 2011-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $974 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.