12812 Portulaca Dr Unit I · Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Condo public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1984 $382/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a prime opportunity in the Parkway North School District. This 3rd-floor condo offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a cozy, light-filled layout with a private balcony overlooking woods for a peaceful view and added privacy. Natural light pours into the unit and gives the space a warm, inviting feel. Priced to sell, this condo is a great fit for a buyer who wants to build equity and make it their own. It does need updates to flooring, paint, kitchen, and bathroom, but the value is in the opportunity. Whether you are a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for a project with upside, this is a chance to get into a desirable area at a price point that leaves room for improvements

Key facts

• $382 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1984

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: FERN RIDGE CONDOMINIUM HOA; Monthly HOA fee; HOA amenities include a pool; HOA fee covers pool and trash

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity and natural gas connected
• Home design: Condominium; One level
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Adjoins common ground; Balcony; Community pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and linoleum flooring; Balcony
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ross Elem. (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 385 students, 32% FRL); North High (math 35% / reading 70%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,074 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 14% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Parkway C-2 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.09%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $60,951
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.24×
• Total profit: $152,077
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,155/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$382
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $408	+0% $387	+5% $365	+10% $344
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $322	+0% $387	+5% $451	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $424	-0.5pp $406	base $387	+0.5pp $367	+1.0pp $347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12545 Markaire Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–4.0	1420	$2,188	$1.54	12d	5	0.60mi
1231 Creve Coeur Crossing Ln Unit I Chesterfield, MO	2.0	2.0	868	$1,395	$1.61	0d	1	0.93mi
2037 Chablis Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	780	$1,588	$2.04	3d	68	1.16mi
1173 Pompeii Dr Chesterfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,799	$1.89	0d	24	1.21mi
807 Cross Creek Dr Creve Coeur, MO	3.0	1.0–2.5	1066	$1,609	$1.51	0d	36	1.31mi
1951 Oberlin Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	993	$1,684	$1.70	0d	24	1.34mi
1895 Boulder Springs Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1083	$2,354	$2.17	0d	6	1.43mi
12401 Boulder Springs Pkwy St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,308	$2.29	0d	10	1.48mi
2207 Summerhouse Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,304	$1.62	0d	20	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $382 · $4,584/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $75,000 Active
4. 2026-03-18
   historical $75,000
5. 1984-07-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,155
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − HOA: −$4,584
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$949
• After-tax cash flow: $3,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Creve Coeur

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1519

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 20,932
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Coming Soon $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,155 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.