28110 Winchester · Winchester, CA 92596

$460,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Land · 180 Days on market

Built 2004 0.53 ac lot $317/sqft · at area comps Est $460k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION FOR FAST SALE, BUYER DID NOT PERFORM. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION, EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY IN THE HEART OF WWINCHESTER FOR FIRST TIME BUYERS, INVESTORS, FEATURING 3 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS 2 FUL BATHROOMS PROPERTY LOOKS LIKE NEW ALL RENOVATED NEW LAMINATED FLOORONG NEW KITCHEN, NEW BATHROOMS, EXCELLENT CONDITION, OVER ONE-HALF ACRE OF FLAT AND USEABLE LAND, WELL WATER YOU WILL NEVER PAY WATER BILL, RURAL SETTINGS BUT CLOSE TO EVERYTHING, 215 AND 15 FREEWAYS WITHIN 15 MINUTES FROM HOME, ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IS JUST WALKING DISTANCE, MIDDLE SCHOOL AND HIGH SCHOOL 10 MINUTES AWAY, SHOPPING AND ENTERTAINMENT JUST 10-15 MINUTES FROM HOME, CLOSE TO THE SOBOBA CASINO FOR THE LOCAL GAMBLING, LIKE WATER SPORTS, DIAMOND VALLEY LAKE JUST MINUTES DRIVING FOR FISHING BOATING, BIKE TRAILS, HIKING, AND WALKING TRAILS, GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD TO RAISE A FAMILY, COME AND SEE IT TODAY YOU WILL LOVE IT. PLEASE SEE REMARKS FOR SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Rural settings
• New bathrooms

Tags

• NEW LAMINATED FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOMS
• OVER ONE-HALF ACRE
• WELL WATER
• RURAL SETTINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $359k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $129k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $460k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $359,039 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $460,000
• List price: $460,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $248,432
• Equity at exit: $414,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $705,459
• Equity at exit: $893,679

Cash invested: $128,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,157/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$754
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,418

Max offer price $460,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,000
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32333 Wild West Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1751	$2,950	$1.68	43d	1	1.42mi
32568 Ventura Ln Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1650	$3,000	$1.82	20d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $460,000 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $460,000 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $460,000 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $460,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $460,000 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $460,000 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $460,000 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $460,000 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $460,000 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $460,000 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $460,000 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $460,000 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $460,000 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    price $460,000 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION FOR FAST SALE, BUYER DID NOT PERFORM. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION, EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY IN THE HEART OF WWINCHESTER FOR FIRST TIME BUYERS, INVESTORS, FEATURING 3 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS 2 FUL BATHROOMS PROPERTY LOOKS LIKE NEW ALL RENOVATED NEW LAMINATED FLOORONG NEW KITCHEN, NEW BATHROOMS, EXCELLENT CONDITION, OVER ONE-HALF ACRE OF FLAT AND USEABLE LAND, WELL WATER YOU WILL NEVER PAY WATER BILL, RURAL SETTINGS BUT CLOSE TO EVERYTHING, 215 AND 15 FREEWAYS WITHIN 15 MINUTES FROM HOME, ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IS JUST WALKING DISTANCE, MIDDLE SCHOOL AND HIGH SCHOOL 10 MINUTES AWAY, SHOPPING AND ENTERTAINMENT JUST 10-15 MINUTES FROM HOME, CLOSE TO THE SOBOBA CASINO FOR THE LOCAL GAMBLING, LIKE WATER SPORTS, DIAMOND VALLEY LAKE JUST MINUTES DRIVING FOR FISHING BOATING, BIKE TRAILS, HIKING, AND WALKING TRAILS, GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD TO RAISE A FAMILY, COME AND SEE IT TODAY YOU WILL LOVE IT. PLEASE SEE REMARKS FOR SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS.

15. 2026-02-19
    status Active 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION FOR FAST SALE, BUYER DID NOT PERFORM. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION, EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY IN THE HEART OF WWINCHESTER FOR FIRST TIME BUYERS, INVESTORS, FEATURING 3 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS 2 FUL BATHROOMS PROPERTY LOOKS LIKE NEW ALL RENOVATED NEW LAMINATED FLOORONG NEW KITCHEN, NEW BATHROOMS, EXCELLENT CONDITION, OVER ONE-HALF ACRE OF FLAT AND USEABLE LAND, WELL WATER YOU WILL NEVER PAY WATER BILL, RURAL SETTINGS BUT CLOSE TO EVERYTHING, 215 AND 15 FREEWAYS WITHIN 15 MINUTES FROM HOME, ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IS JUST WALKING DISTANCE, MIDDLE SCHOOL AND HIGH SCHOOL 10 MINUTES AWAY, SHOPPING AND ENTERTAINMENT JUST 10-15 MINUTES FROM HOME, CLOSE TO THE SOBOBA CASINO FOR THE LOCAL GAMBLING, LIKE WATER SPORTS, DIAMOND VALLEY LAKE JUST MINUTES DRIVING FOR FISHING BOATING, BIKE TRAILS, HIKING, AND WALKING TRAILS, GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD TO RAISE A FAMILY, COME AND SEE IT TODAY YOU WILL LOVE IT. PLEASE SEE REMARKS FOR SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS.

16. 2026-02-11
    status Pending Sale 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION FOR FAST SALE, BUYER DID NOT PERFORM. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION, EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY IN THE HEART OF WWINCHESTER FOR FIRST TIME BUYERS, INVESTORS, FEATURING 3 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS 2 FUL BATHROOMS PROPERTY LOOKS LIKE NEW ALL RENOVATED NEW LAMINATED FLOORONG NEW KITCHEN, NEW BATHROOMS, EXCELLENT CONDITION, OVER ONE-HALF ACRE OF FLAT AND USEABLE LAND, WELL WATER YOU WILL NEVER PAY WATER BILL, RURAL SETTINGS BUT CLOSE TO EVERYTHING, 215 AND 15 FREEWAYS WITHIN 15 MINUTES FROM HOME, ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IS JUST WALKING DISTANCE, MIDDLE SCHOOL AND HIGH SCHOOL 10 MINUTES AWAY, SHOPPING AND ENTERTAINMENT JUST 10-15 MINUTES FROM HOME, CLOSE TO THE SOBOBA CASINO FOR THE LOCAL GAMBLING, LIKE WATER SPORTS, DIAMOND VALLEY LAKE JUST MINUTES DRIVING FOR FISHING BOATING, BIKE TRAILS, HIKING, AND WALKING TRAILS, GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD TO RAISE A FAMILY, COME AND SEE IT TODAY YOU WILL LOVE IT. PLEASE SEE REMARKS FOR SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS.

17. 2025-12-13
    listed $475,000 Active 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION FOR FAST SALE, BUYER DID NOT PERFORM. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION, EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY IN THE HEART OF WWINCHESTER FOR FIRST TIME BUYERS, INVESTORS, FEATURING 3 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS 2 FUL BATHROOMS PROPERTY LOOKS LIKE NEW ALL RENOVATED NEW LAMINATED FLOORONG NEW KITCHEN, NEW BATHROOMS, EXCELLENT CONDITION, OVER ONE-HALF ACRE OF FLAT AND USEABLE LAND, WELL WATER YOU WILL NEVER PAY WATER BILL, RURAL SETTINGS BUT CLOSE TO EVERYTHING, 215 AND 15 FREEWAYS WITHIN 15 MINUTES FROM HOME, ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IS JUST WALKING DISTANCE, MIDDLE SCHOOL AND HIGH SCHOOL 10 MINUTES AWAY, SHOPPING AND ENTERTAINMENT JUST 10-15 MINUTES FROM HOME, CLOSE TO THE SOBOBA CASINO FOR THE LOCAL GAMBLING, LIKE WATER SPORTS, DIAMOND VALLEY LAKE JUST MINUTES DRIVING FOR FISHING BOATING, BIKE TRAILS, HIKING, AND WALKING TRAILS, GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD TO RAISE A FAMILY, COME AND SEE IT TODAY YOU WILL LOVE IT. PLEASE SEE REMARKS FOR SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS.

18. 2025-04-03
    soldstatus $100,000
19. 2005-10-21
    soldstatus $260,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,157 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,496 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,339/yr (+$195/mo · 202.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,767
• − Property taxes: −$1,157
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,447
• − Management: −$3,447
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable loss: −$6,415
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,539
• After-tax cash flow: $3,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 38,981
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+76.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $460,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $475,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,157 · +29.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.