415 N Hyde Park Ave · Durham, NC 27703

$299,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,611 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1932 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your vision and make this property your own! This spacious 4-bedroom home is full of opportunity, located less than 2 miles from vibrant downtown Durham. Enjoy easy access to top dining, the renowned Durham Performing Arts Center, and the Durham Bulls Athletic Park, along with a variety of unique local attractions. Inside, you'll find a flexible floor plan featuring a first-floor office/den--perfect for remote work or additional living space. The standout feature is the above-grade walkout basement, offering incredible potential for expansion, a guest suite, or even a secondary rental opportunity. Recent updates include a new roof (2023), while outdoor living shines with double decks

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1932

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 2,955 total (2,097 above grade, 858 below grade)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Site-built home; Two levels; Fixer condition; R-3 zoning
• Construction: Brick, vinyl siding and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Other foundation; Built as site-built structure
• Exterior features: Enclosed deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fans; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Daylight, finished and unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $291k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverside High (math 49% / reading 42%, grade D-, #347 of 535 statewide, top 65%, 1,812 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1103 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $300k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.23%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $723,247
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 N Guthrie Ave	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,510 (-4%)	1mo	$699,000	$278	67
1006 Franklin St	0.38mi	3/3.5	2,356 (-10%)	4mo	$663,000	$281	54
303 N Guthrie Ave	0.33mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,436 (-7%)	13mo	$675,000	$277	50
1112 Fern St	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,546 (-2%)	20mo	$560,000	$220	48
2005 Angier Ave	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,520 (-4%)	17mo	$649,000	$258	45
205 S Briggs Ave	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,308 (-12%)	2mo	$489,000	$212	41
1210 Hanover St	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,601 (-0%)	23mo	$919,000	$353	33
1305 N Hyde Park	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,320 (-11%)	21mo	$299,999	$129	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-18,768
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,947
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27703

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1103
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,219 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,224/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,490

Max offer price $299,999

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 N Hyde Park Ave Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1980	$3,900	$1.97	23d	1	0.29mi
114 N Guthrie Ave Durham, NC	4.0	3.0	1877	$2,450	$1.31	23d	1	0.40mi
1602 Juniper St Unit B Durham, NC	4.0	3.0	1754	$2,800	$1.60	23d	1	0.76mi
809 Drew St Durham, NC	3.0	2.0	2192	$3,000	$1.37	23d	1	0.80mi
1006 Grant St Durham, NC	4.0	4.0	2201	$3,120	$1.42	23d	1	1.01mi
1008 Grant St Durham, NC	4.0	4.0	2201	$3,120	$1.42	23d	1	1.02mi
211 Hargrove St Unit 1300731P Durham, NC	3.0	3.0	2131	$5,298	$2.49	14d	1	1.29mi
101b Morris St Durham, NC	2.0	2.0	1958	$4,500	$2.30	23d	1	1.32mi
207 Dacian Ave Durham, NC	4.0	3.5	2647	$6,250	$2.36	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,999 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,999 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,999 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,999 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,999 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,999 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,999 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    status Active
17. 2026-05-10
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2026-04-25
    listed $299,999 Active
19. 2026-04-17
    historical $299,999
20. 2025-05-29
    status Pending
21. 2025-05-29
    historical
22. 2025-03-26
    status Active
23. 2025-02-12
    status Pending
24. 2025-01-03
    price $299,999
25. 2025-01-02
    status Active
26. 2024-12-31
    historical
27. 2024-10-16
    listed $329,999 Active
28. 2024-09-16
    price $329,999
29. 2024-07-09
    status Active
30. 2024-06-17
    status Active
31. 2024-06-07
    status Pending
32. 2024-06-07
    historical
33. 2024-06-07
    historical
34. 2024-05-30
    listed $340,000 Active
35. 1999-12-21
    soldstatus $86,000
36. 1999-12-15
    soldstatus $85,000
37. 1999-12-15
    soldstatus $85,000
38. 1999-07-22
    listed $80,000
39. 1999-07-22
    listed $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,224 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,224 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,224
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,091
• − Management: −$3,091
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $2,195
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$527
• After-tax cash flow: $6,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701260
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,143
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6457
• State rank: #132 of 178 in NC

Livability — Durham

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1411

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Durham, NC
• County: Durham County · 288,747 people
• City population: 288,747
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 63,458
• Household income: $89,317
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1685.0

Population outlook (Durham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 368,962 people
• By 2030: 402,686 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 468,677 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 531,727 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 660,446 · +79.0%
• By 2100: 739,971 · +100.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Durham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+61.9) · D 80.2% · R 18.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.0pp toward D · 2008: 51.9pp · 2024: 61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+61.9 2020: D+62.4 2016: D+60.4 2012: D+52.7 2008: D+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.81%
• Current HPI: 206.7413
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — TMLS
• 2026-05-10 Contingent — TMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $299,999 TMLS
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $299,999 TMLS
• 2025-05-29 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-03-26 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-02-12 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $299,999 TMLS
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — TMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2024-10-16 Listed $329,999 TMLS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $329,999 TMLS
• 2024-07-09 Relisted — TMLS
• 2024-06-17 Relisted — TMLS
• 2024-06-07 Pending — TMLS
• 2024-06-07 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2024-06-07 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listed $340,000 TMLS
• 1999-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-15 Sold (MLS) $85,000 AMLSNC
• 1999-12-15 Sold (MLS) $85,000 TMLS
• 1999-07-22 Listed $80,000 AMLSNC
• 1999-07-22 Listed $80,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,224 · +49.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.