Austin Plan · Shelby, MI 48315

$582,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,769 sqft · SingleFamily · 202 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Austin is a two-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and more than 2,700 sq. ft. of living space. The first floor showcases a dining room off the foyer, great room that opens to the kitchen and eat-in nook, and a mud room with a walk-in closet. The second floor features a loft, laundry room, primary suite with full bath, and three secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Looking for a new home in Southeast Michigan? Contact our sales team to learn more about the Austin! We can't wait to meet with you and discuss building your dream home with Lombardo Homes! All dimensions are approximate. Drawings and photos are for illustrative purposes only. Information is subject to change without notice. Not all floor plans or options fit on each homesite. Exterior colors, including brick and siding, are for representation only and are best viewed in person at the Lombardo Homes Design Studio or on an existing Lombardo home. Any pricing or price quote depicted is intended to be an estimate only and is subject to change at any time without notice. Please contact the sales manager to review plans, options, pricing, and availability.

Key facts

• Loft
• Laundry room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• DINING ROOM OFF FOYER
• GREAT ROOM OPENS TO KITCHEN
• MUD ROOM WITH WALK-IN CLOSET
• LOFT
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE WITH FULL BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $582,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $806,786.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $583k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $514k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $450k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard J Duncan Elementary (math 49% / reading 67%, grade C+, #229 of 1,397 statewide, top 17%, 701 students, 29% FRL); Eisenhower High School (math 44% / reading 66%, grade C, #107 of 713 statewide, top 15%, 1,835 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,500/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 22% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($513k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $450,000 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.73%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $806,786
• List price: $582,990
• Delta: -27.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14103 Regatta Bay Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,839 (+2%)	4mo	$824,171	$290	79
13914 Leeward Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	3,149 (+14%)	4mo	$886,554	$282	67
55810 Laurel Oaks Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-11%)	4mo	$884,397	$359	65
55464 Bay Oaks Ct	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-11%)	1mo	$836,963	$340	61
55576 Bay Oaks Ct #42	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-11%)	3mo	$749,028	$304	60
55576 Bay Oaks Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-11%)	3mo	$749,028	$304	60
57373 Glen Forest Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,640 (-5%)	2mo	$875,000	$331	56
55358 Bay Oaks Ct #18	0.42mi	4/3.5	3,148 (+14%)	2mo	$959,697	$305	52
55358 Bay Oaks Ct	0.42mi	4/3.5	3,148 (+14%)	2mo	$959,697	$305	52
14278 Larkspur Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	3,007 (+9%)	4mo	$650,000	$216	48
57135 Meadowridge Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,374 (-14%)	2mo	$855,000	$360	43
13987 Quail View Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,436 (-12%)	4mo	$950,363	$390	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-259,354
• Equity at exit: $120,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-391,270
• Equity at exit: $69,756

Cash invested: $225,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $656,945 ($238/sqft)
• Median days on market: 174 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 48315

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,231
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,008 /mo · $12,102/yr
• Insurance: −$336
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $-2,021

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,058

Max offer price $514,414

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,463	-5% $-1,742	+0% $-2,021	+5% $-2,299	+10% $-2,578
Rent	-10% $-2,376	-5% $-2,198	+0% $-2,021	+5% $-1,843	+10% $-1,665
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,614	-0.5pp $-1,815	base $-2,021	+0.5pp $-2,230	+1.0pp $-2,442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $201,696
• Closing costs: $24,204
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
55740 Beacon Shore Dr Utica, MI	5.0	4.0	3385	$4,500	$1.33	78d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $582,990 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $582,990 Active 201 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $582,990 Active 200 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $582,990 Active 199 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $582,990 Active 198 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $582,990 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $582,990 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $582,990 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $582,990 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $582,990 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $582,990 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $582,990 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $582,990 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $582,990 Active 184 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $582,990 Active 183 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $582,990 Active 182 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $582,990 Active 179 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $582,990 Active 178 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $582,990 Active 177 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $582,990 Active 176 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $582,990 Active 175 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $582,990 Active 174 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $582,990 Active 173 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $582,990 Active 172 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $582,990 Active 171 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $582,990 Active 170 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $582,990 Active 169 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $582,990 Active 168 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $582,990 Active 167 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $582,990 Active 166 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $582,990 Active 165 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $582,990 Active 164 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $582,990 Active 163 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $582,990 Active 162 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $582,990 Active 161 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $582,990 Active 160 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $582,990 Active 159 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $582,990 Active 158 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $582,990 Active 157 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $582,990 Active 156 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $582,990 Active 154 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $582,990 Active 153 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $582,990 Active 152 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $582,990 Active 151 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $582,990 Active 148 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $582,990 Active 146 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $582,990 Active 145 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $582,990 Active 143 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $582,990 Active 141 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $582,990 Active 140 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$45,193
• − Property taxes: −$12,102
• − Insurance: −$4,034
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,320
• − Management: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$23,470
• Taxable loss: −$39,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,465
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernize lighting and improve energy efficiency ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Messmore Elementary School A- MI #74/1,397 Nat'l #3,487/41,679 Middle Malow Junior High School B MI #66/493 Nat'l #2,208/14,009 High Eisenhower High School C MI #107/713 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #7973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Macomb · 925,296 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 28,428
• Household income: $99,512
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Arabic 4% Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.36%
• Current HPI: 194.9368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $582,990 Zillow