Austin Plan · Shelby, MI 48315

$582,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,769 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Austin is a two-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and more than 2,700 sq. ft. of living space. The first floor showcases a dining room off the foyer, great room that opens to the kitchen and eat-in nook, and a mud room with a walk-in closet. The second floor features a loft, laundry room, primary suite with full bath, and three secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Looking for a new home in Southeast Michigan? Contact our sales team to learn more about the Austin! We can't wait to meet with you and discuss building your dream home with Lombardo Homes! All dimensions are approximate. Drawings and photos are for illustrative purposes only. Information is subject to change without notice. Not all floor plans or options fit on each homesite. Exterior colors, including brick and siding, are for representation only and are best viewed in person at the Lombardo Homes Design Studio or on an existing Lombardo home. Any pricing or price quote depicted is intended to be an estimate only and is subject to change at any time without notice. Please contact the sales manager to review plans, options, pricing, and availability.

Key facts

• Loft
• Laundry room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• DINING ROOM OFF FOYER
• GREAT ROOM OPENS TO KITCHEN
• MUD ROOM WITH WALK-IN CLOSET
• LOFT
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE WITH FULL BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $582,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $811,543.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $583k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $514k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $450k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard J Duncan Elementary (math 49% / reading 67%, grade C+, #229 of 1,397 statewide, top 17%, 701 students, 29% FRL); Eisenhower High School (math 44% / reading 66%, grade C, #107 of 713 statewide, top 15%, 1,835 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,500/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 22% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($513k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $450,000 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.84%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $811,543
• List price: $582,990
• Delta: -28.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14103 Regatta Bay Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,839 (+2%)	2mo	$824,171	$290	80
13914 Leeward Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	3,149 (+14%)	2mo	$886,554	$282	68
55810 Laurel Oaks Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-11%)	3mo	$884,397	$359	66
55810 Laurel Oaks Ln #50	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-11%)	3mo	$884,397	$359	66
55576 Bay Oaks Ct #42	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-11%)	1mo	$749,028	$304	61
55576 Bay Oaks Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-11%)	1mo	$749,028	$304	61
57373 Glen Forest Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,640 (-5%)	0mo	$875,000	$331	57
55358 Bay Oaks Ct #18	0.42mi	4/3.5	3,148 (+14%)	0mo	$959,697	$305	53
55358 Bay Oaks Ct	0.42mi	4/3.5	3,148 (+14%)	0mo	$959,697	$305	53
14278 Larkspur Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	3,007 (+9%)	2mo	$650,000	$216	50
57135 Meadowridge Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,374 (-14%)	0mo	$855,000	$360	44
13987 Quail View Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,436 (-12%)	2mo	$950,363	$390	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-262,218
• Equity at exit: $121,004

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-396,461
• Equity at exit: $70,167

Cash invested: $227,232 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.5 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $662,400 ($246/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 48315

• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,256
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,014 /mo · $12,173/yr
• Insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $-2,053

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,099

Max offer price $514,414

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,493	-5% $-1,773	+0% $-2,053	+5% $-2,334	+10% $-2,614
Rent	-10% $-2,409	-5% $-2,231	+0% $-2,053	+5% $-1,876	+10% $-1,698
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,645	-0.5pp $-1,847	base $-2,053	+0.5pp $-2,264	+1.0pp $-2,478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $202,886
• Closing costs: $24,346
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
55740 Beacon Shore Dr Utica, MI	5.0	4.0	3385	$4,500	$1.33	32d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $582,990 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $582,990 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $582,990 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $582,990 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $582,990 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $582,990 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $582,990 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $582,990 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $582,990 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $582,990 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $582,990 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $582,990 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $582,990 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $582,990 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $582,990 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $582,990 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $582,990 Active 133 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $582,990 Active 132 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $582,990 Active 131 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $582,990 Active 130 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $582,990 Active 129 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $582,990 Active 128 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $582,990 Active 127 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $582,990 Active 126 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $582,990 Active 124 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $582,990 Active 123 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $582,990 Active 122 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $582,990 Active 121 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $582,990 Active 120 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $582,990 Active 119 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $582,990 Active 118 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $582,990 Active 117 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $582,990 Active 116 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $582,990 Active 115 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $582,990 Active 114 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $582,990 Active 113 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $582,990 Active 111 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $582,990 Active 109 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $582,990 Active 108 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $582,990 Active 105 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $582,990 Active 104 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $582,990 Active 103 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $582,990 Active 102 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $582,990 Active 100 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $582,990 Active 99 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $582,990 Active 96 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $582,990 Active 95 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $582,990 Active 94 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $582,990 Active 91 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $582,990 Active 90 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$45,459
• − Property taxes: −$12,173
• − Insurance: −$4,058
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,320
• − Management: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$23,609
• Taxable loss: −$39,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,585
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernize lighting and improve energy efficiency ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Messmore Elementary School A- MI #74/1,397 Nat'l #3,487/41,679 Middle Malow Junior High School B MI #66/493 Nat'l #2,208/14,009 High Eisenhower High School C MI #107/713 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #7973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Macomb · 925,296 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 28,428
• Household income: $99,512
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Arabic 4% Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.36%
• Current HPI: 194.9368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $582,990 Zillow