2607 Cecil Nobles Hwy · Ludowici, GA 31316

$156,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1984 1.00 ac lot $100/sqft · 42% below area Est $267k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home on 1 acre on State Highway 301. Exterior features include a metal roof, front covered porch, pole barn chicken coop, and large shade trees. Interior features include a split floor plan, a mix of carpet and vinyl flooring, and the property needs work, sold as is.

Key facts

• Front covered porch
• Metal roof
• Large shade trees

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• FRONT COVERED PORCH
• POLE BARN CHICKEN COOP
• LARGE SHADE TREES
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.4% in Ludowici — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 409 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,640 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.64%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,380
• List price: $156,000
• Delta: -41.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $35,733
• Equity at exit: $54,547

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $102,575
• Equity at exit: $73,496

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 409
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,544/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,281

Max offer price $156,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $156,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $156,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $156,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $156,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $156,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $156,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $156,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $156,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $156,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $156,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $156,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $156,000 Active 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home on 1 acre on State Highway 301. Exterior features include a metal roof, front covered porch, pole barn chicken coop, and large shade trees. Interior features include a split floor plan, a mix of carpet and vinyl flooring, and the property needs work, sold as is.

19. 2026-04-16
    listed $156,000 New 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home on 1 acre on State Highway 301. Exterior features include a metal roof, front covered porch, pole barn chicken coop, and large shade trees. Interior features include a split floor plan, a mix of carpet and vinyl flooring, and the property needs work, sold as is.

20. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus $144,001
21. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus $144,001 Sold
22. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus $144,001 Closed
23. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus $144,001
24. 2022-11-02
    status Pending
25. 2022-10-28
    status Under Contract
26. 2022-10-03
    listed $135,000
27. 2022-10-03
    listed $135,000 New
28. 2022-10-03
    listed $135,000 Active
29. 2022-10-03
    listed $135,000
30. 2022-10-03
    listed $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,544 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,544 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$1,544
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable income: $3,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$874
• After-tax cash flow: $5,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+15.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $156,000 HABR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $156,000 GAMLS
• 2022-12-12 Sold (MLS) $144,001 Hive MLS
• 2022-12-12 Sold (MLS) $144,001 GIAR
• 2022-12-12 Sold (MLS) $144,001 GAMLS
• 2022-12-12 Sold (MLS) $144,001 HABR
• 2022-11-02 Pending — GIAR
• 2022-10-28 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $135,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $135,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $135,000 GIAR
• 2022-10-03 Listed $135,000 GAMLS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $135,000 HABR

Property tax history

+23.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,544 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.