1599 Church St · Pocono Pines, PA 18466

$99,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,466 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1902 7,405 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this inviting single-family home offering 3 comfortable bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Situated on a level lot, the property provides plenty of outdoor space perfect for gardening, entertaining, or future expansion. Inside, you will find a functional floor plan with bright living areas ready for your personal touch. the full unfinished basement offers endless possibilities-ideal for storage, a workshop, or the opportunity to create additional living space. Whether you are a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for an investment property, this home is full of potential and ready to make your own.

Key facts

• Level lot
• Outdoor space
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $992 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 4.0% in Pocono Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#532 in PA, #4,925 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.73%
• DSCR: 2.90
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,016
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1117 Mill St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,374 (-6%)	1mo	$268,000	$195	77
570 Main St	0.40mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,478 (+1%)	5mo	$260,000	$176	69
1607 Church St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+10%)	18mo	$160,000	$99	62
1106 Mill St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,258 (-14%)	18mo	$144,000	$114	55
1578 Prospect St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,279 (-13%)	21mo	$225,000	$176	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $71,951
• Equity at exit: $41,180

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $172,029
• Equity at exit: $60,823

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18466

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,139/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $992

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,048	-5% $1,020	+0% $992	+5% $964	+10% $936
Rent	-10% $810	-5% $901	+0% $992	+5% $1,083	+10% $1,174
Rate	-1.0pp $1,042	-0.5pp $1,017	base $992	+0.5pp $966	+1.0pp $940

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1114 Mill St Unit 2 Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	1.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	44d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-10-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-04
   price $99,500
3. 2025-09-25
   listed $129,900 Active
4. 2021-01-29
   soldstatus $98,400
5. 2014-06-17
   listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,139 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,139 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$3,139
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $11,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,659
• After-tax cash flow: $9,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Pines

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #4925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 595
• Population (ZIP): 17,997

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 24% Two or more races 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Current HPI: 202.4134
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+563.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-07 Pending — PMAR
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $99,500 PMAR
• 2025-09-25 Listed $129,900 PMAR
• 2021-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $98,400 Public Records
• 2014-06-17 Listed $15,000 PMAR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,139 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.