40 Lizie Ln · Mount Olive, MS 39119

$74,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 2016 Fair condition 2.00 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Acres of Privacy & Potential! Enjoy peace and seclusion down a long private easement drive. Additional septic, water, and power hookups on the north side - perfect for another mobile home, camper, or even building a second home. New septic tank included (not yet installed). Excellent rental or investment opportunity with multiple hookup options. Being sold as-is. Will require conventional financing or cash purchase.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 2016
• Listed 68 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Community water; Sewer: Other; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Manufactured house; One story; Raised foundation
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Owner-reported year built; Building area approximately 1,200
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 2-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $74k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#93 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Covington County School District (rural): math 26% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #78 of 130 in MS (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($512 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Covington County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 89% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,560 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.61%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $46,728
• Equity at exit: $54,054

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.89×
• Total profit: $122,020
• Equity at exit: $105,296

Cash invested: $20,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39119

• Home prices YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$92 /mo · $1,110/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $647

Max offer price $74,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $312	+0% $287	+5% $261	+10% $236
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $247	+0% $287	+5% $327	+10% $367
Rate	-1.0pp $324	-0.5pp $306	base $287	+0.5pp $268	+1.0pp $248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,500
• Closing costs: $2,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $74,000 Pending 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $74,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $74,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $74,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-04-02
    listed $74,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    2 Acres of Privacy & Potential! Enjoy peace and seclusion down a long private easement drive. Additional septic, water, and power hookups on the north side - perfect for another mobile home, camper, or even building a second home. New septic tank included (not yet installed). Excellent rental or investment opportunity with multiple hookup options. Being sold as-is. Will require conventional financing or cash purchase.

12. 2026-04-02
    listed $74,000 Active 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    2 Acres of Privacy & Potential! Enjoy peace and seclusion down a long private easement drive. Additional septic, water, and power hookups on the north side - perfect for another mobile home, camper, or even building a second home. New septic tank included (not yet installed). Excellent rental or investment opportunity with multiple hookup options. Being sold as-is. Will require conventional financing or cash purchase.

13. 2026-03-30
    historical
14. 2026-02-10
    price $68,000
15. 2026-02-10
    price $68,000
16. 2025-09-30
    listed $79,500 Active
17. 2025-09-30
    listed $79,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 89% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,145
• − Property taxes: −$1,110
• − Insurance: −$370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$970
• − Management: −$970
• − Depreciation: −$2,153
• Taxable income: $2,406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$578
• After-tax cash flow: $2,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Key areas for investment include appliances, fixtures, and exterior painting.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — Not installed and appear worn
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Not installed and appear worn
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and may need repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both Install kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal
• Both Install bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and appeal
• Both Paint exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen appliances · Not installed and appear worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Not installed and appear worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and may need repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$33,000–115,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Install kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Install bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Paint exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801290
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,020
• Composite: 22.09/100
• National rank: #8183
• State rank: #78 of 130 in MS

Livability — Mount Olive

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #11501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,199

Population outlook (Covington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,294 people
• By 2030: 18,875 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 17,777 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 16,381 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 12,704 · -34.2%
• By 2100: 9,090 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 46% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Covington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.3) · D 33.0% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -17.7pp · 2024: -33.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.3 2020: R+26.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.57%
• Current HPI: 150.7147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $74,000 HAAR
• 2026-04-02 Listed $74,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $68,000 HAAR
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $68,000 MLSU
• 2025-09-30 Listed $79,500 HAAR
• 2025-09-30 Listed $79,500 MLSU