5016 Old Timber Rd · Arlington Heights, PA 18360

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 18 Days on market

Built 2024 7,548 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BETTER THAN NEW! ''2024 ''CHAMPION'' (3-BR, 2-BA, 1,056 sq. ft. ) custom ranch home located in the quiet community of Hamilton Hills! An open floor plan and spacious rooms greet you the moment you enter. Upgraded kitchen features stainless appliances, wood cabinetry with soft closing drawers, Formica counters and a center counter island with double sink that seats 3! Spacious master bedroom suite includes a walk-in tub-shower and (5' x 6') WIC inside the bathroom. Central air, plus the home is set on a concrete perimeter foundation for easy access and no worries about damaging skirting, many extras and upgrades! Walk out from the laundry area onto a patio area, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful mountains views! Hamilton Community Park is conveniently located minutes to Tannersville Outlets, Mohican Sun Casino, Big Boulder, Jack Frost and other major Pocono attractions! Whether your looking for a full time or seasonal residence it's location is close to Rts. 80 & 33 for perfect commuting! Monthly lot rent of $595 incl. W/ S/G. BUYERS: Please make sure your approved for manufactured home financing . . VA, FHA, USDA or Conventional mortgages will not qualify for these homes. Call today! Call listing agent with any questions.

Key facts

• Patio area
• Upgraded kitchen
• Walk in tub shower

Tags

• CUSTOM RANCH HOME
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• CENTER COUNTER ISLAND
• WALK IN TUB SHOWER
• CONCRETE PERIMETER FOUNDATION
• PATIO AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#317 in PA, #2,815 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, schools F.
• Stroudsburg Area SD (suburban): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #315 of 539 in PA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.56%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $30,896
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $92,631
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18360

• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $328/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $804

Break-even live

Break-even rent $930

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $875	-5% $839	+0% $804	+5% $769	+10% $733
Rent	-10% $650	-5% $727	+0% $804	+5% $881	+10% $958
Rate	-1.0pp $867	-0.5pp $836	base $804	+0.5pp $772	+1.0pp $739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending 1260-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1284 chars)

   GREAT HOME! GREAT LOCATION! "2024 "CHAMPION" (3-BR, 2-BA, 1,056 sq. ft. ) custom ranch home located in the quiet community of Hamilton Hills! An open floor plan and spacious rooms greet you the moment you enter. Upgraded kitchen features stainless appliances, wood cabinetry with soft closing drawers, Formica counters and a center counter island with double sink that seats 3! Spacious master bedroom suite includes a walk-in tub-shower and (5' x 6') WIC inside the bathroom. Central air, plus the home is set on a concrete perimeter foundation for easy access and no worries about damaging skirting, many extras and upgrades! Walk out from the laundry area onto a patio area, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful mountains views! Hamilton Community Park is conveniently located minutes to Tannersville Outlets, Mohican Sun Casino, Big Boulder, Jack Frost and other major Pocono attractions! Whether your looking for a full time or seasonal residence it's location is close to Rts. 80 & 33 for perfect commuting! Monthly lot rent of $595 incl. W/ S/G. BUYERS: Please make sure your approved for manufactured home financing . . VA, FHA, USDA or Conventional mortgages will not qualify for these homes. Call today! Call listing agent with any questions.

2. 2026-04-07
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1284 chars)

   GREAT HOME! GREAT LOCATION! "2024 "CHAMPION" (3-BR, 2-BA, 1,056 sq. ft. ) custom ranch home located in the quiet community of Hamilton Hills! An open floor plan and spacious rooms greet you the moment you enter. Upgraded kitchen features stainless appliances, wood cabinetry with soft closing drawers, Formica counters and a center counter island with double sink that seats 3! Spacious master bedroom suite includes a walk-in tub-shower and (5' x 6') WIC inside the bathroom. Central air, plus the home is set on a concrete perimeter foundation for easy access and no worries about damaging skirting, many extras and upgrades! Walk out from the laundry area onto a patio area, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful mountains views! Hamilton Community Park is conveniently located minutes to Tannersville Outlets, Mohican Sun Casino, Big Boulder, Jack Frost and other major Pocono attractions! Whether your looking for a full time or seasonal residence it's location is close to Rts. 80 & 33 for perfect commuting! Monthly lot rent of $595 incl. W/ S/G. BUYERS: Please make sure your approved for manufactured home financing . . VA, FHA, USDA or Conventional mortgages will not qualify for these homes. Call today! Call listing agent with any questions.

3. 2026-04-07
   status Pending 1284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1284 chars)

   GREAT HOME! GREAT LOCATION! "2024 "CHAMPION" (3-BR, 2-BA, 1,056 sq. ft. ) custom ranch home located in the quiet community of Hamilton Hills! An open floor plan and spacious rooms greet you the moment you enter. Upgraded kitchen features stainless appliances, wood cabinetry with soft closing drawers, Formica counters and a center counter island with double sink that seats 3! Spacious master bedroom suite includes a walk-in tub-shower and (5' x 6') WIC inside the bathroom. Central air, plus the home is set on a concrete perimeter foundation for easy access and no worries about damaging skirting, many extras and upgrades! Walk out from the laundry area onto a patio area, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful mountains views! Hamilton Community Park is conveniently located minutes to Tannersville Outlets, Mohican Sun Casino, Big Boulder, Jack Frost and other major Pocono attractions! Whether your looking for a full time or seasonal residence it's location is close to Rts. 80 & 33 for perfect commuting! Monthly lot rent of $595 incl. W/ S/G. BUYERS: Please make sure your approved for manufactured home financing . . VA, FHA, USDA or Conventional mortgages will not qualify for these homes. Call today! Call listing agent with any questions.

4. 2026-03-20
   listed $125,000 Active 1260-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1284 chars)

   GREAT HOME! GREAT LOCATION! "2024 "CHAMPION" (3-BR, 2-BA, 1,056 sq. ft. ) custom ranch home located in the quiet community of Hamilton Hills! An open floor plan and spacious rooms greet you the moment you enter. Upgraded kitchen features stainless appliances, wood cabinetry with soft closing drawers, Formica counters and a center counter island with double sink that seats 3! Spacious master bedroom suite includes a walk-in tub-shower and (5' x 6') WIC inside the bathroom. Central air, plus the home is set on a concrete perimeter foundation for easy access and no worries about damaging skirting, many extras and upgrades! Walk out from the laundry area onto a patio area, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful mountains views! Hamilton Community Park is conveniently located minutes to Tannersville Outlets, Mohican Sun Casino, Big Boulder, Jack Frost and other major Pocono attractions! Whether your looking for a full time or seasonal residence it's location is close to Rts. 80 & 33 for perfect commuting! Monthly lot rent of $595 incl. W/ S/G. BUYERS: Please make sure your approved for manufactured home financing . . VA, FHA, USDA or Conventional mortgages will not qualify for these homes. Call today! Call listing agent with any questions.

5. 2026-03-20
   listed $125,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1284 chars)

   GREAT HOME! GREAT LOCATION! "2024 "CHAMPION" (3-BR, 2-BA, 1,056 sq. ft. ) custom ranch home located in the quiet community of Hamilton Hills! An open floor plan and spacious rooms greet you the moment you enter. Upgraded kitchen features stainless appliances, wood cabinetry with soft closing drawers, Formica counters and a center counter island with double sink that seats 3! Spacious master bedroom suite includes a walk-in tub-shower and (5' x 6') WIC inside the bathroom. Central air, plus the home is set on a concrete perimeter foundation for easy access and no worries about damaging skirting, many extras and upgrades! Walk out from the laundry area onto a patio area, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful mountains views! Hamilton Community Park is conveniently located minutes to Tannersville Outlets, Mohican Sun Casino, Big Boulder, Jack Frost and other major Pocono attractions! Whether your looking for a full time or seasonal residence it's location is close to Rts. 80 & 33 for perfect commuting! Monthly lot rent of $595 incl. W/ S/G. BUYERS: Please make sure your approved for manufactured home financing . . VA, FHA, USDA or Conventional mortgages will not qualify for these homes. Call today! Call listing agent with any questions.

6. 2026-03-20
   listed $125,000 Active 1284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1284 chars)

   GREAT HOME! GREAT LOCATION! "2024 "CHAMPION" (3-BR, 2-BA, 1,056 sq. ft. ) custom ranch home located in the quiet community of Hamilton Hills! An open floor plan and spacious rooms greet you the moment you enter. Upgraded kitchen features stainless appliances, wood cabinetry with soft closing drawers, Formica counters and a center counter island with double sink that seats 3! Spacious master bedroom suite includes a walk-in tub-shower and (5' x 6') WIC inside the bathroom. Central air, plus the home is set on a concrete perimeter foundation for easy access and no worries about damaging skirting, many extras and upgrades! Walk out from the laundry area onto a patio area, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful mountains views! Hamilton Community Park is conveniently located minutes to Tannersville Outlets, Mohican Sun Casino, Big Boulder, Jack Frost and other major Pocono attractions! Whether your looking for a full time or seasonal residence it's location is close to Rts. 80 & 33 for perfect commuting! Monthly lot rent of $595 incl. W/ S/G. BUYERS: Please make sure your approved for manufactured home financing . . VA, FHA, USDA or Conventional mortgages will not qualify for these homes. Call today! Call listing agent with any questions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,152 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$823/yr (+$69/mo · 250.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$328
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $8,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,930
• After-tax cash flow: $7,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4222860
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $59,061
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #4747
• State rank: #315 of 539 in PA

Livability — Arlington Heights

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #2815

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 59,057 people
• Metro: East Stroudsburg, PA
• Population (ZIP): 30,080
• Household income: $71,481
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1020.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.01%
• Current HPI: 152.4388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: East Stroudsburg, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-07 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $125,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $125,000 PMAR

Property tax history

-10.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $328 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.