8747 Wolf Den Trl · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$5,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,851 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1989 5,663 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS 4 BEDROOM, 2 BATH, 2 CAR GARAGE POOL HOME IS PRICED TO SELL FAST. FEATURES INCLUDE NEWER BLACK APPLIANCES HUGE 12x21 MASTER SUITE AND SPILL OVER SPA WITH ELECTRIC HEATER. WONT LAST LONG AT THIS PRICE!

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Construction materials: see remarks
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 total room
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other flooring

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$333,180) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 387.0% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,052/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 2699% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 41.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 387.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 1359.76%
• DSCR: 61.50
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,180
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11425 Fox Run	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,839 (-1%)	4mo	$305,000	$166	85
11422 Fox Run	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,839 (-1%)	4mo	$305,000	$166	84
8737 Beaver Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,746 (-6%)	10mo	$339,000	$194	80
11020 Peppertree Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,070 (+12%)	2mo	$339,500	$164	66
11610 Bee Hive Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (-8%)	2mo	$310,000	$183	65
8600 Briar Patch Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,809 (-2%)	11mo	$379,000	$210	63
8711 Woodmont Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-1%)	14mo	$319,000	$174	62
11520 Bear Paw Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (-8%)	11mo	$305,000	$180	60
11127 Water Oak Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (-12%)	4mo	$250,000	$153	58
11134 Island Pine Dr	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,612 (-13%)	4mo	$298,000	$185	56
10705 Tonapa Loop	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (+5%)	1mo	$290,000	$149	55
9251 Star Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-15%)	1mo	$395,000	$250	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 70.12×
• Total profit: $96,767
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 144.32×
• Total profit: $200,652
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,052 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $1,586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 18%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,590	-5% $1,588	+0% $1,586	+5% $1,585	+10% $1,583
Rent	-10% $1,424	-5% $1,505	+0% $1,586	+5% $1,667	+10% $1,748
Rate	-1.0pp $1,589	-0.5pp $1,588	base $1,586	+0.5pp $1,585	+1.0pp $1,584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	4d	10	0.85mi
8015 San Fernando Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$2,400	$1.57	25d	1	0.86mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	23d	1	0.92mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	6d	1	0.92mi
8431 Duval Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,731	$1.23	6d	1	0.92mi
7835 Arbordale Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1661	$1,850	$1.11	25d	1	0.95mi
10816 Piccadilly Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,550	$1.10	13d	1	0.98mi
7730 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,850	$1.04	25d	1	1.00mi
7804 Birchwood Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,750	$1.16	25d	1	1.01mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	25d	1	1.02mi
10331 Flagship Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	25d	1	1.04mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	25d	1	1.09mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	25d	1	1.17mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	6d	1	1.19mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	25d	1	1.20mi
12213 Saddle Strap Row Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,990	$1.18	19d	1	1.23mi
10629 Cymbid Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	25d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $5,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 299-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $5,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,970
• − Management: −$1,970
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $20,157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,838
• After-tax cash flow: $14,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2005-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-09 Sold (MLS) $183,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-05 Listed $184,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2001-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $93,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,763 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.