24 Road 5213 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$170,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 2023 0.36 ac lot $124/sqft · 15% below area Est $199k · 15% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for quiet country living with no restrictions and low taxes, this is your dream home. This spacious property features an open floor plan with a large living room. Recent updates include a new kitchen island, laminated in the front, fully covered fence, beams on ceiling and a new driveway.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New kitchen island
• Wood-covered fence

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW KITCHEN ISLAND
• WOOD-COVERED FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($574/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,118
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -14.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
174 Road 5252	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	13mo	$160,000	$128	38
101 County Road 5221 Rd	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,547 (+13%)	18mo	$190,000	$123	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,713
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,382
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,673 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,586/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,613

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $96	+0% $48	+5% $0	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $-18	+0% $48	+5% $114	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $91	base $48	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	17d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    price $170,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    If you are looking for quiet country living with no restrictions and low taxes, this is your dream home. This spacious property features an open floor plan with a large living room. Recent updates include a new kitchen island, laminated in the front, fully covered fence, beams on ceiling and a new driveway.

16. 2026-03-12
    listed $160,000 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    If you are looking for quiet country living with no restrictions and low taxes, this is your dream home. This spacious property features an open floor plan with a large living room. Recent updates include a new kitchen island, laminated in the front, fully covered fence, beams on ceiling and a new driveway.

17. 2025-07-31
    historical
18. 2025-03-22
    listed $192,000 Active
19. 2025-03-22
    historical
20. 2025-02-28
    listed $169,000 Active
21. 2025-02-28
    historical
22. 2025-02-16
    listed $198,000 Active
23. 2025-02-08
    historical
24. 2024-10-04
    price $220,000
25. 2024-08-12
    listed $235,000 Active
26. 2023-04-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,586 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,586 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,586
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,607
• − Management: −$1,607
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$526
• After-tax cash flow: $1,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-22 Listed $192,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-16 Listed $198,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-12 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+36.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,586 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.