4973 Eleven Oaks Ln #16 · North Highlands, CA 95660

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 2017 Est $97k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well cared for 3 bedroom, 2 bath double-wide home located in a desirable family park in North Highlands. This inviting home features a comfortable, functional layout and has been thoughtfully maintained throughout. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday essentials, it offers both comfort and accessibility. Residents also enjoy access to a community pool, perfect for relaxing and cooling off during those hot summer days.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2017
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; 220V in kitchen; 220V in laundry; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Double-wide; Clayton manufactured home; Built in 2017
• Construction: Wood skirting; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Dog run; Regular-shaped lot; Land lease in park

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Hood over range; Disposal; Self-cleaning oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tubs and tub/shower over combos
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Dual-pane full windows; Great room living area; Pantry closet; Wood countertops; Kitchen and family/dining combined; Pets allowed with limits
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.1% in North Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#523 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oakdale Elementary (584 students, 93% FRL); Foothill High (1,251 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 76% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.65%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,768
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4963 Eleven Oaks Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	6mo	$140,000	$91	70
3655 N Ohio Ln #87	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (+13%)	13mo	$120,000	$79	57
5040 Jackson St #60	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$75,000	$52	57
5040 Jackson St #110	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$81,500	$57	57
4133 Potomac Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,298 (-3%)	10mo	$100,000	$77	53
5040 Jackson St #23	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-10%)	13mo	$119,500	$99	50
4139 Minute Man Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-4%)	11mo	$92,000	$72	49
5040 Jackson St #149	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	12mo	$88,000	$71	46
4130 Annapolis Ln #159	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-9%)	9mo	$107,500	$88	45
4125 Potomac Ln #129	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	8mo	$58,000	$48	43
5040 Jackson St #54	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	10mo	$75,000	$50	43
5040 Jackson St #44	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	9mo	$74,000	$48	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $9,232
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $65,220
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95660

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,030/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,580

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $455	-5% $419	+0% $382	+5% $345	+10% $308
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $300	+0% $382	+5% $463	+10% $545
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $415	base $382	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3609 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	3d	2	0.17mi
4930 Polk St North Highlands, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,795	$1.91	3d	3	0.21mi
3517 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	4d	1	0.21mi
3731 Scallop Ct North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$2,150	$2.33	45d	1	0.24mi
5123 Shell St North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	912	$1,950	$2.14	3d	1	0.37mi
4008 Tricia Way North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	14d	1	0.49mi
4020 Tricia Way Unit 4688001002 North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	45d	1	0.52mi
5625 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	875	$2,150	$2.46	3d	1	0.92mi
5516 Palmdale Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1115	$2,250	$2.02	22d	1	1.04mi
5728 Luce Ave McClellan Park, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0	1058	$2,190	$2.07	3d	3	1.05mi
5733 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	925	$2,195	$2.37	3d	1	1.10mi
4215 Palm Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,660	$2.14	3d	3	1.18mi
4561 Ashcroft Ave Unit 52 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,395	$1.55	3d	1	1.29mi
4561 Ashcroft Ave Apt 49 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	888	$1,499	$1.69	3d	1	1.29mi
5001 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,400	$2.17	3d	1	1.33mi
3610 Auburn Blvd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1140	$2,395	$2.10	9d	1	1.34mi
4255 Winding Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,995	$1.53	9d	1	1.34mi
5800 Hamilton St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	823	$1,770	$2.15	3d	4	1.35mi
6037 N Haven Dr North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	884	$2,150	$2.43	3d	1	1.36mi
5048 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,588	$1.59	45d	1	1.38mi
5614 Hillsdale Blvd Unit A Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	933	$1,450	$1.55	23d	1	1.40mi
4716 Tulane Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,450	$1.88	25d	1	1.44mi
3831 Annadale Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	786	$1,700	$2.16	5d	4	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 457-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $130,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,030 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,030 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,030
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $2,937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$705
• After-tax cash flow: $3,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — North Highlands

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #17613

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Highlands, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 56,900
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,451
• Household income: $68,235
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 25% Russian/Polish/Slavic 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -273.83%
• Current HPI: 438.1022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.69%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,030 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.