405 Oak Creek Rd · West Memphis, AR 72301

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1989 5,662 sqft lot Est $130k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home conveniently located in a subdivision just behind ASU Mid-South College. This 924 sq ft property features an open-concept kitchen and living room, perfect for comfortable everyday living or entertaining. Enjoy the cozy wood-burning fireplace, ideal for cooler evenings. The home includes a 1-car garage and a fully fenced backyard, offering privacy and space for outdoor activities, pets, or gardening. An additional outbuilding provides extra storage or workspace. Conveniently located near campus, this home is a great option for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• ADDITIONAL OUTBUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 6.9% in West Memphis — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#413 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• West Memphis School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 238 in AR (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Crittenden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crittenden County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,468 (1.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.20%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,284
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Oak Creek Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	0mo	$129,900	$141	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,202
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $11,441
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72301

• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $738/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,009

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $255	+0% $218	+5% $181	+10% $145
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $167	+0% $218	+5% $269	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $251	base $218	+0.5pp $184	+1.0pp $150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $129,900 Active
3. 2026-02-19
   soldstatus $90,000
4. 2018-09-20
   soldstatus $70,500
5. 2004-11-12
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $738 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $831 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 12.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$738
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$122
• After-tax cash flow: $2,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Memphis School District
• NCES district ID: 0508040
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $29,382
• Composite: 12.22/100
• National rank: #9647
• State rank: #224 of 238 in AR

Livability — West Memphis

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #23638

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Memphis, AR
• City population: 24,182
• Population (ZIP): 24,182

Population outlook (Crittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,254 people
• By 2030: 42,953 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -15.5%
• By 2050: 33,670 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,315 · -46.3%
• By 2100: 17,173 · -62.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crittenden

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 47.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.7pp · 2024: 2.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.3 2020: D+7.2 2016: D+9.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.63%
• Current HPI: 182.7665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+73.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — EARA
• 2026-04-01 Listed $129,900 EARA
• 2026-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 2004-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $738 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.