The Atlanta Plan · Niederwald, TX 78640

$233,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily · 135 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Atlanta is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,156 sq. ft. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home perfect for any family. Entering the home you step into the foyer where there is a coat closet. Walking further into the home you will notice the open concept kitchen and living room. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with stainless steel appliances. Just off the kitchen you will find the 2 secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Near the back of the home you are greeted with natural light from the windows in the living room. The main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room providing privacy. The main bedroom ensuite includes a walk-in-shower and an oversized closet. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Contact us today and find your home at Prairie Lakes.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Oversized closet
• Open concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WALK-IN-SHOWER
• OVERSIZED CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $233,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $289,620.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-557 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,198 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $182,814 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.25%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,620
• List price: $233,990
• Delta: -19.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Garcia St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	3mo	$233,990	$202	77
165 Bull Lake Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	9mo	$231,990	$201	72
385 Bull Lake Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	9mo	$229,990	$199	67
198 Alkali Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	10mo	$232,990	$202	67
355 Bull Lake Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	4mo	$254,990	$199	64
379 Bull Lake Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	10mo	$241,990	$189	59
486 Bull Lake Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	1mo	$247,990	$194	52
190 Alkali Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	7mo	$244,990	$191	51
274 Bull Lake Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	10mo	$244,990	$191	51
338 Bull Lake Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	10mo	$241,990	$189	48
222 Alkali Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	10mo	$241,990	$189	48
362 Bull Lake Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	10mo	$240,990	$188	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-87,754
• Equity at exit: $43,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-142,710
• Equity at exit: $25,041

Cash invested: $81,094 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,344/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,534

Max offer price $208,982

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,405
• Closing costs: $8,689
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Garcia St Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,900	$1.29	24d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,990 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $233,990 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,990 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,990 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,990 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $233,990 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $233,990 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $233,990 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $233,990 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $233,990 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,990 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,990 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,990 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-02-03
    listed $233,990 Active 1131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1131 chars)

    The Atlanta is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,156 sq. ft. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home perfect for any family. Entering the home you step into the foyer where there is a coat closet. Walking further into the home you will notice the open concept kitchen and living room. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with stainless steel appliances. Just off the kitchen you will find the 2 secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Near the back of the home you are greeted with natural light from the windows in the living room. The main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room providing privacy. The main bedroom ensuite includes a walk-in-shower and an oversized closet. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Contact us today and find your home at Prairie Lakes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,223
• − Property taxes: −$4,344
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − Depreciation: −$8,425
• Taxable loss: −$12,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,883
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can enhance the kitchen's functionality and aesthetics.
• Both Clean the air filters — Clean air filters improve HVAC efficiency and indoor air quality, which can be beneficial for both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can enhance the kitchen's functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Clean the air filters — Clean air filters improve HVAC efficiency and indoor air quality, which can be beneficial for both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Niederwald

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1198
• US rank: #20995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $233,990 Zillow