The Atlanta Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$233,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily · 186 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Atlanta is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,156 sq. ft. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home perfect for any family. Entering the home you step into the foyer where there is a coat closet. Walking further into the home you will notice the open concept kitchen and living room. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with stainless steel appliances. Just off the kitchen you will find the 2 secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Near the back of the home you are greeted with natural light from the windows in the living room. The main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room providing privacy. The main bedroom ensuite includes a walk-in-shower and an oversized closet. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Contact us today and find your home at Prairie Lakes.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Oversized closet
• Open concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WALK-IN-SHOWER
• OVERSIZED CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $233,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $289,764.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-528 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camino Real El (math 22% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 782 students, 76% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $186,628 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.81%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,764
• List price: $233,990
• Delta: -19.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Garcia St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	4mo	$233,990	$202	76
220 Garcia St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$247,490	$214	74
146 Childress St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$246,990	$214	71
165 Bull Lake Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	10mo	$231,990	$201	71
385 Bull Lake Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	10mo	$229,990	$199	66
355 Bull Lake Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	5mo	$254,990	$199	63
131 Lake Diversion St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	2mo	$250,460	$196	57
164 Garcia St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	1mo	$250,950	$196	54
137 Childress St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	1mo	$249,990	$195	53
486 Bull Lake Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	3mo	$247,990	$194	50
190 Alkali Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	9mo	$244,990	$191	50
338 Bull Lake Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	11mo	$241,990	$189	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-86,032
• Equity at exit: $43,205

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-139,251
• Equity at exit: $25,053

Cash invested: $81,134 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.4 mo (23%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $261,240 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +35.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2089
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,346/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,535

Max offer price $213,342

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-328	-5% $-428	+0% $-528	+5% $-628	+10% $-728
Rent	-10% $-676	-5% $-602	+0% $-528	+5% $-454	+10% $-381
Rate	-1.0pp $-382	-0.5pp $-454	base $-528	+0.5pp $-603	+1.0pp $-680

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,441
• Closing costs: $8,693
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Garcia St Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,900	$1.29	73d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $233,990 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $233,990 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $233,990 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $233,990 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $233,990 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $233,990 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $233,990 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $233,990 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $233,990 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $233,990 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $233,990 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $233,990 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $233,990 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $233,990 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $233,990 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $233,990 Active 164 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $233,990 Active 163 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $233,990 Active 162 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $233,990 Active 161 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $233,990 Active 160 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $233,990 Active 159 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $233,990 Active 158 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $233,990 Active 157 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $233,990 Active 156 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $233,990 Active 154 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $233,990 Active 153 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $233,990 Active 152 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $233,990 Active 150 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $233,990 Active 149 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $233,990 Active 148 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $233,990 Active 147 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $233,990 Active 146 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $233,990 Active 145 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $233,990 Active 144 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $233,990 Active 143 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $233,990 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $233,990 Active 139 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $233,990 Active 138 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $233,990 Active 135 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $233,990 Active 134 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $233,990 Active 133 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $233,990 Active 132 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $233,990 Active 130 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $233,990 Active 126 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $233,990 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $233,990 Active 124 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $233,990 Active 121 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $233,990 Active 120 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,990 Active 119 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,990 Active 118 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,231
• − Property taxes: −$4,346
• − Insurance: −$1,449
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$8,429
• Taxable loss: −$11,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,780–$17,340 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can enhance the kitchen's functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Clean the air filters — Clean air filters improve HVAC efficiency and indoor air quality, which can be beneficial for both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Camino Real El F TX #3,492/4,322 Nat'l #33,016/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Moe And Gene Johnson H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $233,990 Zillow