17114 153rd Ave SE #10 · Yelm, WA 98597

$93,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2009 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Are housing prices getting you down? Not here! Beautiful and contemporary 2009 built Goldenwest Manufactured home in a quiet + all-ages park! Welcome home to Lake Lawrence. The backdrop of Mt Rainier and all the best of a truly PNW community. Large windows that beckon in natural light and a permanent vacant lot next store for ultimate privacy. The primary bedroom with en-suite, including a large walk-in closet. Additional well-appointed bedroom and a large guest bathroom, plus storage space galore! Newer appliances in a chef-inspired kitchen for you to get your top chef skills on. Fresh modern exterior paint (green and black) , landscaping, updated carpet, flooring, interior paint, lighting

Key facts

• Updated carpet
• Walk-in closet
• Extra locked storage

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• MODERN EXTERIOR PAINT
• UPDATED CARPET
• EXTRA LOCKED STORAGE
• MINUTES TO LAKE LAWRENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manufactured home park approved for sale
• Financial info: Land lease: $800/month; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Lake Lawrence Mobile Home Park (approximately 42 homes); Park allows cats and dogs; Park common area available; Land lease applicable

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water; Septic sewer; PSE power company
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Very good condition; Tie down foundation
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Wood exterior products; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Double oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Water heater; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater located in the laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $93k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 3.6% in Yelm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#244 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $643 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $91,605 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.52%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $392,280
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17114 153rd Ave SE #24	0.00mi	2/2.0	920 (+10%)	22mo	$85,000	$92	66
15409 Westshore Dr SE	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	896 (+7%)	10mo	$418,000	$467	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $54,967
• Equity at exit: $13,867

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $155,604
• Equity at exit: $8,041

Cash invested: $26,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98597

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,002 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$488
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $548/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $1,009

Break-even live

Break-even rent $724

Max offer price $93,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,062	-5% $1,036	+0% $1,009	+5% $983	+10% $957
Rent	-10% $851	-5% $930	+0% $1,009	+5% $1,089	+10% $1,168
Rate	-1.0pp $1,056	-0.5pp $1,033	base $1,009	+0.5pp $985	+1.0pp $961

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,250
• Closing costs: $2,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $93,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $93,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $93,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $93,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $93,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $93,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $93,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $93,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $93,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $93,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-04-04
    price $98,000
16. 2026-03-10
    price $109,000
17. 2026-02-22
    price $118,000
18. 2026-02-04
    price $128,000
19. 2026-01-13
    listed $138,000 Active
20. 2024-02-12
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed
21. 2024-01-08
    status Pending
22. 2024-01-03
    listed $99,950 Active
23. 2020-11-30
    soldstatus $62,500 Sold
24. 2020-11-24
    status Pending
25. 2020-11-16
    price $65,000
26. 2020-10-28
    price $69,950
27. 2020-10-09
    listed $74,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $548 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $911 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 66.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,209
• − Property taxes: −$548
• − Insurance: −$465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,922
• − Management: −$1,922
• − Depreciation: −$2,705
• Taxable income: $11,253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,701
• After-tax cash flow: $9,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained 2009 Goldenwest manufactured home in a quiet park setting, with fresh exterior paint and updated interior features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yelm School District
• NCES district ID: 5310140
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,328
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #4685
• State rank: #108 of 291 in WA

Livability — Yelm

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #7737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 26,669
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,669
• Household income: $92,219
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.07%
• Current HPI: 326.4361
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+30.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $98,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $109,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $118,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $128,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $138,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-12 Sold (MLS) $90,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-03 Listed $99,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-30 Sold (MLS) $62,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-16 Price Changed $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-28 Price Changed $69,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-09 Listed $74,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $548 · -11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.