44 Natchez Cir · Red Feather Lakes, CO 80545

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2003 1.05 ac lot $61/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, two full bath home with nice view of Black Mountain from living room. Light and bright. Low maintenance decking. RV parking with electric hookup. Quiet location. Private stocked lake, ponds and streams for your fishing pleasure. Crystal Lakes is nestled in the heart of Roosevelt Nation Forest and all the splendor.

Key facts

• Expansive trex deck
• 1.05 acre lot
• Built 2003

Tags

• EXPANSIVE TREX DECK
• TWO LARGE STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community trails
• HOA & community: Has HOA; Annual association fee of $425; Additional annual association fee of $310; Association fees include trash service; Association transfer fee applies; Association has reserves

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Well water (meter installed); Electricity available; Propane
• Home design: Manufactured on land (manufactured house); One level; Not new; previously owned; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Deck; Partial fencing; Wooded lot with evergreen trees; Storage structure on property; Minimal flood risk (C rating)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all conforming)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Pellet stove; Multiple heat sources
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Cathedral ceilings; Window coverings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $345k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.2% in Red Feather Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#344 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cache La Poudre Elementary School (math 44% / reading 37%, grade F, #342 of 966 statewide, top 36%, 298 students, 32% FRL); Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $471 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $350k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $344,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $17,421
• Equity at exit: $91,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $98,177
• Equity at exit: $103,156

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80545

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,528 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$741
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,797

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $776	-5% $677	+0% $578	+5% $479	+10% $380
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $438	+0% $578	+5% $717	+10% $856
Rate	-1.0pp $754	-0.5pp $667	base $578	+0.5pp $487	+1.0pp $395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $350,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $350,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $350,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $350,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $350,000 Active
17. 2026-02-28
    historical
18. 2025-10-27
    listed $380,000 Active
19. 2015-09-30
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Three bedroom, two full bath home with nice view of Black Mountain from living room. Light and bright. Low maintenance decking. RV parking with electric hookup. Quiet location. Private stocked lake, ponds and streams for your fishing pleasure. Crystal Lakes is nestled in the heart of Roosevelt Nation Forest and all the splendor.

20. 2015-09-30
    soldstatus $120,000

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Three bedroom, two full bath home with nice view of Black Mountain from living room. Light and bright. Low maintenance decking. RV parking with electric hookup. Quiet location. Private stocked lake, ponds and streams for your fishing pleasure. Crystal Lakes is nestled in the heart of Roosevelt Nation Forest and all the splendor.

21. 2015-07-22
    historical Active - Backup 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Three bedroom, two full bath home with nice view of Black Mountain from living room. Light and bright. Low maintenance decking. RV parking with electric hookup. Quiet location. Private stocked lake, ponds and streams for your fishing pleasure. Crystal Lakes is nestled in the heart of Roosevelt Nation Forest and all the splendor.

22. 2015-06-30
    price $125,000 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Three bedroom, two full bath home with nice view of Black Mountain from living room. Light and bright. Low maintenance decking. RV parking with electric hookup. Quiet location. Private stocked lake, ponds and streams for your fishing pleasure. Crystal Lakes is nestled in the heart of Roosevelt Nation Forest and all the splendor.

23. 2015-06-02
    listed $135,000 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Three bedroom, two full bath home with nice view of Black Mountain from living room. Light and bright. Low maintenance decking. RV parking with electric hookup. Quiet location. Private stocked lake, ponds and streams for your fishing pleasure. Crystal Lakes is nestled in the heart of Roosevelt Nation Forest and all the splendor.

24. 2010-11-12
    soldstatus $118,000
25. 2010-11-10
    soldstatus $118,000
26. 2009-07-23
    listed $119,500
27. 2008-01-31
    soldstatus $144,000
28. 2008-01-31
    soldstatus $144,000
29. 2006-11-04
    listed $144,000
30. 2006-10-16
    historical
31. 2006-04-17
    listed $146,000
32. 2006-04-16
    historical
33. 2005-08-13
    listed $157,900
34. 2005-08-11
    historical
35. 2004-03-04
    listed $159,900
36. 1999-05-20
    soldstatus $19,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,387
• − Management: −$3,387
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable income: $1,287
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$309
• After-tax cash flow: $6,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

Livability — Red Feather Lakes

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #23247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 913

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 280.4591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+1667.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $350,000 IRES
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-10-27 Listed $380,000 IRES
• 2015-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-30 Sold (MLS) $120,000 IRES
• 2015-07-22 Contingent — IRES
• 2015-06-30 Price Changed $125,000 IRES
• 2015-06-02 Listed $135,000 IRES
• 2010-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2010-11-10 Sold (MLS) $118,000 IRES
• 2009-07-23 Listed $119,500 IRES
• 2008-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $144,000 Public Records
• 2008-01-31 Sold (MLS) $144,000 IRES
• 2006-11-04 Listed $144,000 IRES
• 2006-10-16 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2006-04-17 Listed $146,000 IRES
• 2006-04-16 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2005-08-13 Listed $157,900 IRES
• 2005-08-11 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2004-03-04 Listed $159,900 IRES
• 1999-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $19,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,004 · +19.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.