1902 Flaxen Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$229,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2025 5,750 sqft lot $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR Walden Pond- Idlewood Floorplan

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $222,376 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.19%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,996
• Equity at exit: $34,219

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-11,192
• Equity at exit: $19,843

Cash invested: $64,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,224 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,352/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $229,499

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $408	-5% $343	+0% $278	+5% $213	+10% $148
Rent	-10% $102	-5% $190	+0% $278	+5% $366	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $336	base $278	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,375
• Closing costs: $6,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	20d	1	0.18mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	0.31mi
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	0d	1	0.36mi
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	6d	1	0.38mi
2217 Perrymead Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,360	$1.66	6d	1	0.39mi
1450 Whaley Dr Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	922	$2,532	$2.75	0d	20	0.51mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	4d	1	0.53mi
1105 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,842	$1.87	0d	30	0.65mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,191	$1.34	0d	1	0.66mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	45d	1	0.74mi
1100 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,819	$2.04	0d	29	0.75mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	26d	1	0.75mi
1430 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,950	$1.33	14d	1	0.75mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	0.80mi
1205 Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,437	$2.55	45d	1	0.80mi
1200 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,658	$1.96	0d	30	0.81mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	45d	1	0.81mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	26d	1	0.82mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	3d	1	0.82mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	26d	1	0.87mi
2421 Eldor Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,195	$1.31	26d	1	0.95mi
10900 Reeder Ln Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1186	$3,200	$2.70	23d	1	0.98mi
1405 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$3,920	$4.19	0d	1	0.99mi
2106 Bluebell Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,950	$1.27	7d	1	1.05mi
2029 Cone Flower Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,816	$1.13	9d	1	1.09mi
507 Thunder Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	0d	1	1.15mi
224 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,095	$1.34	0d	1	1.15mi
2015 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	22d	1	1.20mi
2009 Brook Meadow Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,800	$1.05	45d	1	1.21mi
4432 Thalia Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,100	$1.16	45d	1	1.22mi
213 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	45d	1	1.22mi
300 Trailhouse Ln Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,115	$2.03	0d	36	1.25mi
2000 Natchez Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,819	$1.17	45d	1	1.25mi
2101 Wildwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,900	$1.22	45d	1	1.28mi
201 Wildwood Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,955	$2.03	0d	30	1.31mi
204 Freedom Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,925	$1.21	3d	1	1.32mi
113 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,769	$1.19	18d	1	1.32mi
110 Meadow Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$1,783	$0.97	0d	1	1.37mi
102 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,999	$1.20	9d	1	1.39mi
105 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,900	$1.18	9d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-06
   listed $229,499 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,352 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,200 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,848/yr (+$237/mo · 210.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,856
• − Property taxes: −$1,352
• − Insurance: −$1,147
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,135
• − Management: −$2,135
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$6,676
• Taxable loss: −$419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$101
• After-tax cash flow: $3,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $229,499 NTREIS

Property tax history

+104.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,352 · +104.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.