7019 Zieglers Grv · Sugar Land, TX 77469

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1981 6,381 sqft lot Est $264k · 24% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTMENT opportunity in Tara Subdivision, Richmond Texas. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers strong potential for investors, flippers or buyers looking for a renovation project. Property needs significant repairs and is bing sold as-is. Spacious floor plan with great upside potential in an established neighborhood. This location has convenient access to shopping, doing, and major highway. Additional sunroom space on back of house. Offers Subject to Lender approval

Key facts

• Sunroom space
• Convenient access
• Spacious floor plan

Tags

• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• SUNROOM SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Association fee paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1981; Slab foundation
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (11 x 14); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($488/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Land — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#38 in TX, #1,758 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: George Ranch H S (math 52% / reading 76%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 2,511 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1332 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6918 Gettysburg Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,628 (-4%)	1mo	$239,000	$147	81
7126 Sharpsburg Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-7%)	4mo	$242,000	$153	79
7226 Buchanan Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+2%)	1mo	$269,990	$155	79
6731 Gettysburg Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,628 (-4%)	1mo	$254,900	$157	73
535 Shenandoah Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-14%)	2mo	$225,000	$153	72
7403 Orchard Hills Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+3%)	4mo	$389,900	$222	71
218 Tara Plantation Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-7%)	3mo	$235,000	$149	68
6603 Harpers Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,732 (+2%)	3mo	$255,000	$147	64
6915 Kearney Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,517 (-11%)	2mo	$250,000	$165	59
6724 Pickett Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-14%)	2mo	$250,000	$171	55
219 Shenandoah Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,913 (+12%)	2mo	$210,000	$110	54
213 Willoughby Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-14%)	1mo	$244,880	$167	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-35,699
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-50,512
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1332
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$446 /mo · $5,354/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,016

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6826 Blue Ridge Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,769	$1.12	44d	1	0.36mi
6915 Renfro Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1517	$1,745	$1.15	21d	1	0.43mi
1601 Crabb River Rd Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,939	$1.69	19d	1	0.83mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,939	$1.69	24d	1	1.39mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,939	$1.69	44d	1	1.39mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Richmond, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,550	$2.27	1d	16	1.39mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Unit 3174 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,306	$1.53	17d	1	1.41mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Unit 5233 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,429	$1.61	44d	1	1.41mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Unit 5237 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1244	$2,152	$1.73	44d	1	1.41mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Unit 2174 Richmond, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,943	$1.69	17d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $199,900 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   listed $199,900 Active
4. 2007-01-25
   soldstatus
5. 2007-01-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,354 · $446/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,354 · $446/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,354
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$649
• After-tax cash flow: $1,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sugar Land

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1758

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 168,209
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2007-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,354 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.