238 W Caribbean · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$39,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1980 Fair condition $30/sqft · 34% below area Est $59k · 34% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.3

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.9% vs local median 4.0% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.22%
• DSCR: 5.55
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,715
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -33.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Del Sol	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,350 (+4%)	1mo	$22,000	$16	88
14 La Costa Ln	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+0%)	3mo	$35,000	$27	79
19 W Caribbean	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,350 (+4%)	0mo	$32,000	$24	77
8167 Buckthorn Cir	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,331 (+3%)	2mo	$225,000	$169	75
8165 Buckthorn Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,340 (+3%)	1mo	$119,500	$89	74
2948 Fiddlewood Cir	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-1%)	3mo	$122,000	$95	69
41 Montilla Way	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,386 (+7%)	2mo	$79,900	$58	63
12 Orinco Rd	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,380 (+6%)	2mo	$64,999	$47	62
10 SE La Mesa	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-11%)	3mo	$45,000	$39	59
3018 Saltbush Ln	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-5%)	2mo	$146,000	$119	58
3155 Columbrina Cir	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,487 (+15%)	1mo	$175,400	$118	55
109 East Caribbean	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,460 (+13%)	2mo	$30,000	$21	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $51,315
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.49×
• Total profit: $114,504
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.5 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $74,450 ($56/sqft)
• Median days on market: 137 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -18.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,521 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$2
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $930

Break-even live

Break-even rent $344

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $957	-5% $944	+0% $930	+5% $917	+10% $903
Rent	-10% $810	-5% $870	+0% $930	+5% $990	+10% $1,050
Rate	-1.0pp $950	-0.5pp $940	base $930	+0.5pp $920	+1.0pp $910

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	72d	1	0.37mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	63d	7	0.40mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	63d	15	0.46mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	63d	6	0.55mi
1455 SE Colchester Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,795	$1.95	63d	1	0.81mi
2082 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$1,850	$1.21	72d	1	0.83mi
2058 SE Wild Meadow Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	63d	1	0.86mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	72d	1	0.91mi
1131 SE Parrish Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	72d	1	0.91mi
1516 SE Royal Green Cir #202 Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	921	$2,100	$2.28	72d	1	0.93mi
2183 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	63d	1	0.94mi
2130 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	63d	1	0.94mi
1520 SE Royal Green Cir Unit K-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	72d	1	0.96mi
1537 SE Royal Green Cir Unit E204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,750	$1.98	63d	1	1.10mi
1618 SE Elkhart Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	72d	1	1.10mi
2209 SE East Dunbrooke Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$2,950	$2.43	63d	1	1.13mi
1548 SE Royal Green Cir Unit M-103 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	72d	1	1.18mi
1500 SE Tiffany Club Pl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,922	$2.15	63d	7	1.21mi
1350 SE La Haven Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1041	$2,100	$2.02	72d	1	1.33mi
1456 SE Rivergreen Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,825	$1.98	63d	1	1.35mi
991 SE Walters Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$8,500	$8.17	72d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior communityPets allowed with possible breed restrictions; cats and dogs OK
• Financial info: Land lease of $930 monthly (lease expires 2026-06-30)
• HOA & community: Has associationAnnual association fee (small amount)Association amenities include pool, heated pool, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, golf course, dog park, billiard and game rooms, sauna, shuffleboard, bocce ball, community room, kitchen facilities, library, workshop area, manager on site, laundry, parking, maintenance and management

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spacesAttached carport (1 covered space)DrivewayOpen parking space
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable availableWater and sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide)One storyResaleFaces westMobile length approximately 45 ft
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roofAluminum and brick skirtingPublic maintained road frontageNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateTileVinylWood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closetsSplit bedroom layoutFurnishedSatellite dishBlindsBay window(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-07-01
   days on market $39,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-30
   days on market $39,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-29
   days on market $39,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $39,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-28
   days on market $39,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-27
   days on market $39,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-25
   days on market $39,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-23
   days on market $39,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-18
    price $39,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-18
    days on market $45,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-17
    days on market $45,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-16
    days on market $45,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-15
    days on market $45,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-06-14
    days on market $45,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-06-13
    days on market $45,000 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-06-10
    days on market $45,000 Active 70 DOM
18. 2026-06-09
    days on market $45,000 Active 69 DOM
19. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 68 DOM
20. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 67 DOM
21. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 64 DOM
22. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 63 DOM
23. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 62 DOM
24. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 61 DOM
25. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 60 DOM
26. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 59 DOM
27. 2026-04-01
    status Active
28. 2026-04-01
    historical
29. 2026-04-01
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,460
• − Management: −$1,460
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $11,210
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,690
• After-tax cash flow: $8,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,480–$19,440 screening

The home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Minor paint — wear on interior walls

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets — new cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — new fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both landscape and trim overgrown areas — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Village Green Environmental Studies School D- FL #1,247/2,144 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Southern Oaks Middle School F FL #353/571 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Port St. Lucie High School F FL #415/667 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 338,016 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior communityPets allowed with possible breed restrictions; cats and dogs OK
• Financial info: Land lease of $930 monthly (lease expires 2026-06-30)
• HOA & community: Has associationAnnual association fee (small amount)Association amenities include pool, heated pool, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, golf course, dog park, billiard and game rooms, sauna, shuffleboard, bocce ball, community room, kitchen facilities, library, workshop area, manager on site, laundry, parking, maintenance and management

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spacesAttached carport (1 covered space)DrivewayOpen parking space
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable availableWater and sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide)One storyResaleFaces westMobile length approximately 45 ft
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roofAluminum and brick skirtingPublic maintained road frontageNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateTileVinylWood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closetsSplit bedroom layoutFurnishedSatellite dishBlindsBay window(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $45,000 Beaches MLS