12941 SW Forli Way · Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$342,390

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,661 sqft · Land · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 1,917 sqft lot $115/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Pelican features an open concept kitchen, dining, and great room, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, a spacious loft ideal for game nights or hobbies, plus a private primary suite with dual walk in closets for added storage.

Key facts

• $115 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with no restrictions
• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Community pool; Community room; Pickleball courts; Street lights; On-site management/manager; Monthly HOA fee of $115 covering grounds maintenance and common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage with garage door opener; 1 covered space; 2 open parking spaces (3 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Townhouse; 2 stories; New construction (Meritage Homes, Pelican model); Entry-level living area present; North-facing
• Construction: Block, concrete and frame construction; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Open porch; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms (all bedrooms upstairs)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Upstairs living area; Storm windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $342k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-247/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bayshore Elementary School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 835 students, 70% FRL); St. Lucie West Centennial High (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 2,766 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,074 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-57,448
• Equity at exit: $51,051

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-54,393
• Equity at exit: $29,604

Cash invested: $95,869 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34987

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,911 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,796
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,405/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,937

Max offer price $338,758

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $76	+0% $-21	+5% $-117	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-136	+0% $-21	+5% $94	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $67	base $-21	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,598
• Closing costs: $10,272
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13138 SW Valletta Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1727	$2,685	$1.55	14d	25	0.06mi
12865 SW Forli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,700	$1.61	22d	1	0.08mi
12845 SW Forli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,800	$1.59	14d	1	0.09mi
9670 SW Libertas Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,700	$1.80	14d	1	0.19mi
9796 SW Santini Rd Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1929	$3,500	$1.81	14d	1	0.37mi
9509 SW Libertas Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,800	$1.86	24d	1	0.37mi
12271 SW Rimini Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	24d	1	0.44mi
12134 SW Rimini Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	24d	1	0.51mi
12500 Roma Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	969	$2,657	$2.74	14d	7	0.62mi
11590 SW Roma Cir Port St. Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1179	$3,071	$2.60	14d	36	0.76mi
9231 SW Pepoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,750	$1.67	22d	1	0.79mi
9231 SW Pepoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,750	$1.67	24d	1	0.79mi
11590 Roma Way Unit 9-303 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,410	$2.15	14d	1	0.79mi
11590 Roma Way Unit 7-105 Port St. Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,660	$2.10	14d	1	0.79mi
12813 SW Ambra St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1828	$3,200	$1.75	14d	1	0.85mi
9184 SW Esule Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,750	$1.54	14d	1	0.97mi
9084 SW Arco Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$4,500	$2.11	24d	1	1.00mi
11344 SW Pietra Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$3,700	$1.74	14d	1	1.06mi
9630 SW Flowermound Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,495	$1.42	14d	1	1.06mi
14058 SW Surina St Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1894	$2,990	$1.58	14d	1	1.10mi
11477 SW Patterson St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,600	$1.58	24d	1	1.10mi
11267 SW Pietra Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1667	$3,200	$1.92	24d	1	1.13mi
10936 SW Vasari Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.5	2100	$3,450	$1.64	14d	1	1.13mi
10057 SW Newberry Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,500	$1.52	22d	1	1.14mi
10231 SW Latium Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$4,900	$2.30	24d	1	1.16mi
11160 SW Lunata Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1968	$3,850	$1.96	24d	1	1.18mi
14143 SW Safi Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,900	$1.76	14d	1	1.22mi
9728 SW Eastbrook Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,300	$1.73	14d	1	1.24mi
12401 SW Arabella Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,650	$1.38	24d	1	1.26mi
14075 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1916	$2,800	$1.46	24d	1	1.26mi
10495 SW Orana Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1657	$3,000	$1.81	24d	1	1.29mi
14122 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,700	$1.61	14d	1	1.30mi
14162 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1754	$2,650	$1.51	24d	1	1.30mi
10736 SW Prato Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,700	$1.38	24d	1	1.31mi
9282 SW Miracoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1932	$4,900	$2.54	24d	1	1.33mi
10574 SW Cambria Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$3,000	$1.57	24d	1	1.35mi
10695 SW Prato Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,850	$1.49	14d	1	1.38mi
10241 SW Newberry Ave Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1448	$2,905	$2.01	14d	29	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $342,390 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $342,390 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $342,390 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $342,390 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $337,390 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   price $337,390 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $342,390 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $342,390 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $342,390 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $342,390 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-04-27
    listed $342,390 Active
12. 2026-04-11
    listed $342,390 Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    The Pelican features an open concept kitchen, dining, and great room, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, a spacious loft ideal for game nights or hobbies, plus a private primary suite with dual walk in closets for added storage.

13. 2025-10-08
    soldstatus $11,550,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,405 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,842 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$437/yr (+$36/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,179
• − Property taxes: −$2,405
• − Insurance: −$2,509
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,794
• − Management: −$2,794
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$9,960
• Taxable loss: −$6,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,462
• After-tax cash flow: $1,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $90,201
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 597.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.23%
• Current HPI: 269.222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $342,390 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $342,390 Zillow
• 2025-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $11,550,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+249.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,405 · +718.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.