8968 Rochester Rd · Gasport, NY 14067

$39,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1965 1.81 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential of this rare offering featuring two adjacent buildable lots in a quiet rural setting. Total frontage measures approximately 218 ft and the is depth approximantly 300 ft, providing generous space to design and construct your ideal home while maintaining privacy and flexibility for future use. Whether you're looking to build a single custom residence with expanded grounds, develop two separate homes, or secure land as a long-term investment, this property offers the versatility and setting to bring your vision to life. Surrounded by open space and residential properties, the location blends peaceful country living with convenient access to nearby amenities and roadways

Key facts

• 1.81 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 60 days

Tags

• TWO ADJACENT BUILDABLE LOTS
• DEPTH APPROXIMATELY 300 FT
• SURROUNDED BY OPEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($875 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#257 in NY, #4,056 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Royalton-Hartland Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #362 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.52%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $15,836
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $42,655
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14067

• Home prices YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,391/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $39,900
3. 2026-02-13
   listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,391
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$840
• − Management: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $3,832
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$920
• After-tax cash flow: $3,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royalton-Hartland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625140
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,582
• Composite: 43.8/100
• National rank: #2934
• State rank: #362 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gasport

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #4056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,063

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.38%
• Current HPI: 291.621
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $39,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,391 · -9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.