1445 Sterling Way · Ferris, TX 75125

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 3,006 sqft lot $203/sqft · 6% above area Est $194k · 6% over $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set in a peaceful country setting, this well-maintained one-story home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and has been cared for by its original owner since its completion in 2023. Located in a quiet neighborhood and just minutes from local schools, it combines comfort and convenience with modern style. The open-concept layout creates an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, filled with natural light for a bright, airy feel. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs through the main living spaces for a durable, low-maintenance finish. The kitchen features generous counter space, 52-inch shaker-style cabinets, and decorative lighting for a clean, modern look. With its functional design, this home offers comfortable living in a tranquil country setting close to dining and shopping.

Key facts

• Decorative lighting
• Natural light
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETS
• DECORATIVE LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($388/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Ferris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#401 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $192,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,793
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: 5.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1485 Sterling Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,017 (+1%)	3mo	$209,000	$206	94
1435 Sterling Way	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,017 (+1%)	6mo	$205,000	$202	94
445 Reverie Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	958 (-5%)	9mo	$198,000	$207	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-31,047
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,932
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75125

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,986/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,959

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
450 Reverie Way Ferris, TX	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	3d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    price $205,000 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Set in a peaceful country setting, this well-maintained one-story home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and has been cared for by its original owner since its completion in 2023. Located in a quiet neighborhood and just minutes from local schools, it combines comfort and convenience with modern style. The open-concept layout creates an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, filled with natural light for a bright, airy feel. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs through the main living spaces for a durable, low-maintenance finish. The kitchen features generous counter space, 52-inch shaker-style cabinets, and decorative lighting for a clean, modern look. With its functional design, this home offers comfortable living in a tranquil country setting close to dining and shopping.

15. 2026-04-25
    price $207,500 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Set in a peaceful country setting, this well-maintained one-story home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and has been cared for by its original owner since its completion in 2023. Located in a quiet neighborhood and just minutes from local schools, it combines comfort and convenience with modern style. The open-concept layout creates an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, filled with natural light for a bright, airy feel. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs through the main living spaces for a durable, low-maintenance finish. The kitchen features generous counter space, 52-inch shaker-style cabinets, and decorative lighting for a clean, modern look. With its functional design, this home offers comfortable living in a tranquil country setting close to dining and shopping.

16. 2026-04-12
    price $212,500 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Set in a peaceful country setting, this well-maintained one-story home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and has been cared for by its original owner since its completion in 2023. Located in a quiet neighborhood and just minutes from local schools, it combines comfort and convenience with modern style. The open-concept layout creates an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, filled with natural light for a bright, airy feel. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs through the main living spaces for a durable, low-maintenance finish. The kitchen features generous counter space, 52-inch shaker-style cabinets, and decorative lighting for a clean, modern look. With its functional design, this home offers comfortable living in a tranquil country setting close to dining and shopping.

17. 2026-03-27
    listed $213,000 Active 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Set in a peaceful country setting, this well-maintained one-story home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and has been cared for by its original owner since its completion in 2023. Located in a quiet neighborhood and just minutes from local schools, it combines comfort and convenience with modern style. The open-concept layout creates an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, filled with natural light for a bright, airy feel. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs through the main living spaces for a durable, low-maintenance finish. The kitchen features generous counter space, 52-inch shaker-style cabinets, and decorative lighting for a clean, modern look. With its functional design, this home offers comfortable living in a tranquil country setting close to dining and shopping.

18. 2026-03-05
    price $215,000
19. 2026-03-05
    status Active
20. 2026-02-05
    price $210,000
21. 2026-01-10
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,986 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,986 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,986
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$2,958
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$710
• After-tax cash flow: $1,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, one-story home in a peaceful setting offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. Upgrades in paint, flooring, and appliances can significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating flooring in bedrooms — Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more appealing to tech-savvy buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating flooring in bedrooms — Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more appealing to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819170
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $53,468
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7486
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ferris

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #8294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,154

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% White 32% Two or more races 25% Black 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.54%
• Current HPI: 243.4525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $207,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $212,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $213,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $195,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+202.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,986 · +48.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.