The Pattison Plan · Alabaster, AL 35007

$304,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Pattison at Peavine Crossing in Alabaster, Alabama. This two-story townhome offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,658 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into a welcoming foyer that flows seamlessly into the open-concept main level. The stylish kitchen, featuring modern white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a large island. The kitchen overlooks the dining area and great room-perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, all four bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged. The primary bedroom, tucked in the back corner of the house, boasts a private en-suite bathroom with dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Stylish kitchen
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $304,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: New construction plan (The Pattison)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,652

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (The Pattison)

🏗️ New construction. The $304,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $387,815.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-884 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AL, #3,512 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alabaster City (suburban): math 30% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #17 of 129 in AL (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,309 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.77%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,815
• List price: $304,900
• Delta: -21.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Peavine Cv	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+6%)	1mo	$335,900	$192	82
409 Peavine Cv	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+6%)	2mo	$335,900	$192	79
5196 Simms Rdg	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (+6%)	1mo	$443,654	$252	72
3096 Simms Lndg	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+0%)	1mo	$390,000	$235	70
193 Huntley Ridge Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,748 (+6%)	3mo	$392,540	$225	64
377 Huntley Ridge Bnd	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,731 (+5%)	5mo	$409,201	$236	63
356 Huntley Ridge Bnd	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,748 (+6%)	2mo	$386,462	$221	62
396 Huntley Ridge Bnd	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,536 (-7%)	1mo	$377,515	$246	60
156 Huntley Ridge Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,536 (-7%)	2mo	$365,399	$238	58
141 Huntley Ridge Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,762 (+7%)	2mo	$386,523	$219	58
5017 Simms Rdg	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (+6%)	7mo	$438,000	$249	57
200 Huntley Ridge Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,536 (-7%)	8mo	$389,295	$253	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-121,039
• Equity at exit: $57,825

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-185,475
• Equity at exit: $33,531

Cash invested: $108,588 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35007

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,034
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$485 /mo · $5,817/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-884

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,393

Max offer price $259,847

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-616	-5% $-750	+0% $-884	+5% $-1,018	+10% $-1,152
Rent	-10% $-1,064	-5% $-974	+0% $-884	+5% $-795	+10% $-705
Rate	-1.0pp $-689	-0.5pp $-786	base $-884	+0.5pp $-985	+1.0pp $-1,087

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,954
• Closing costs: $11,634
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Grand Reserve Dr Pelham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1417	$1,677	$1.18	2d	11	0.67mi
148 Highview Cv Pelham, AL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,099	$1.30	2d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $304,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $304,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $304,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,900 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $304,900 Active 1497-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 43% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,724
• − Property taxes: −$5,817
• − Insurance: −$1,939
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,182
• − Management: −$2,182
• − Depreciation: −$11,282
• Taxable loss: −$17,849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alabaster City
• NCES district ID: 0100190
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $68,690
• Composite: 39.07/100
• National rank: #4052
• State rank: #17 of 129 in AL

Livability — Alabaster

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3512

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alabaster, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 28,586
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 28,586
• Household income: $88,505
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 325.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.63%
• Current HPI: 211.0691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B