164 Oak Cir · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$267,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · Land · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 10,018 sqft lot $181/sqft · 8% above area Est $248k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to our Prescott floor plan. The thoughtfully designed single-story home offers effortless flow and modern finishes. This open-concept layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a bright and inviting central space for daily living and entertaining. The kitchen features white shaker cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The private owner's suite includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with dual vanities. Two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for whatever fits your needs. The covered patio provides relaxing outdoor space and easy access to the back yard. With its functional layout and timeless style, the Prescott delivers comfort and convenience, all on one level.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Walk-in closet
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• DUAL VANITY SINKS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emerald Shores Elementary School (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 666 students, 74% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,659 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.16%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,959
• List price: $267,990
• Delta: 8.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $46,648
• Equity at exit: $167,329

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $147,475
• Equity at exit: $302,462

Cash invested: $75,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,020/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,344

Max offer price $212,235

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-200	-5% $-293	+0% $-385	+5% $-478	+10% $-571
Rent	-10% $-532	-5% $-459	+0% $-385	+5% $-312	+10% $-239
Rate	-1.0pp $-250	-0.5pp $-317	base $-385	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,998
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Olive Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	23d	1	0.30mi
226 Oak Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,675	$1.19	15d	1	0.40mi
106 Oak Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,795	$1.24	15d	1	0.41mi
21 Olive Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,800	$1.23	15d	1	0.48mi
2 Ash Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,750	$1.62	15d	1	0.58mi
8 Ash Pass Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,650	$1.46	23d	1	0.71mi
60 Bahia Court Trak Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,695	$1.20	23d	1	1.42mi
12 Spring Loop Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $267,990 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $267,990 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $267,990 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $267,990 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $267,990 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $267,990 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $267,990 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $267,990 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $267,990 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $267,990 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $267,990 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $267,990 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $267,990 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $267,990 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $267,990 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $267,990 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    listed $267,990 Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Welcome to our Prescott floor plan. The thoughtfully designed single-story home offers effortless flow and modern finishes. This open-concept layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a bright and inviting central space for daily living and entertaining. The kitchen features white shaker cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The private owner's suite includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with dual vanities. Two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for whatever fits your needs. The covered patio provides relaxing outdoor space and easy access to the back yard. With its functional layout and timeless style, the Prescott delivers comfort and convenience, all on one level.

18. 2026-04-02
    listed $267,990 Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Under Construction. Welcome to your dream home in the Silver Springs Shores Community! The Prescott Plan features an airy open layout with a seamless transition between the Living Room, a well-equipped Kitchen, and a separate Dining Area, ideal for entertaining. The kitchen stands out with its beautiful cabinetry, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, including a range with a microwave hood and dishwasher. The serene primary suite includes a private bath with dual vanity sinks and a generous walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a convenient two-car garage, energy-efficient Low-E insulated dual-pane vinyl windows, and a one-year limited home warranty.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$4,020
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable loss: −$9,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,269
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $267,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Listed $267,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $287 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.