2787 Orange Grove Trl E · Orangetree, FL 34120

$498,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 162 Days on market

Built 2005 6,969 sqft lot $175/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Valencia Lakes, one of Naples' most desirable gated communities. This beautifully maintained two-story home offers southern exposure, 4 bedrooms , one of the bedroom was converted to a flexible for media room or office space , 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,567 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. A brand-new A/C system installed in 2025, newer appliances with extended warranties, and numerous upgrades provide peace of mind and exceptional value. The open-concept floor plan features ceramic tile and Brazilian hardwood flooring, elegant 12-inch crown molding, surround sound speakers on both levels, and abundant natural light throughout. The spacious kitchen is equipped with 4

Key facts

• New air condition
• Crown mold
• Oak cabinet

Tags

• 4 CAR PARKING
• NEW AIR CONDITION
• CERAMIC TILES IN KITCHEN
• WOOD FLOORS IN DINING ROOM
• CROWN MOLD
• OAK CABINET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is deed-restricted (no commercial, no RV); Lot irrigation via well; Lot dimensions approximately 55 x 120 with 66 back
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Monthly HOA fee of $175; Annual recurring HOA fees totaling $2,100; One-time fees totaling $200; Professional management; HOA maintenance includes manager, recreation facilities, street lights, and trash removal; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, tennis court, basketball court, bike/jog path, play area, billiards, sidewalks, streetlights, internet access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway with 2+ spaces
• Security: Entry keypad; Entry phone; Patrolled community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story home; Rear exposure facing south; Located in the Valencia Lakes community (gated)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Built in 2005; Single-hung windows; Impact-resistant windows
• Exterior features: Fruit trees; Privacy wall; Automatic sprinkler system; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Walk-in pantry; Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator/freezer; Trash compactor; Reverse osmosis
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus den; Master bedroom upstairs; Split bedroom plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Surround sound pre-wired; Walk-in closet; Den / study; Screened lanai/porch; Unfurnished; 4 ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Owned water treatment system

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-915 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (42.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#636 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Corkscrew Elementary School (math 76% / reading 73%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 863 students, 35% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 55% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1132 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,848 (42.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.86%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-147,572
• Equity at exit: $74,388

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-236,302
• Equity at exit: $43,136

Cash invested: $139,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34120

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1132
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,848 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,616
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,989/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-915

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,006

Max offer price $337,335

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-632	-5% $-773	+0% $-915	+5% $-1,056	+10% $-1,197
Rent	-10% $-1,140	-5% $-1,027	+0% $-915	+5% $-802	+10% $-690
Rate	-1.0pp $-663	-0.5pp $-788	base $-915	+0.5pp $-1,044	+1.0pp $-1,175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,725
• Closing costs: $14,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2215 Dragonfruit Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,175	$1.53	22d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $498,900 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $498,900 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $498,900 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $498,900 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $498,900 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $498,900 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $498,900 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $498,900 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $498,900 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $498,900 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $498,900 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $498,900 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $498,900 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $498,900 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $498,900 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-03-10
    price $524,900
17. 2026-01-10
    listed $534,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,989 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,141 · $345/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,152/yr (+$179/mo · 108.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,946
• − Property taxes: −$1,989
• − Insurance: −$2,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,735
• − Management: −$2,735
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$14,513
• Taxable loss: −$20,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,879
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orangetree

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #636
• US rank: #12453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orangetree, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,345
• Household income: $93,861
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 409.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 13%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.18%
• Current HPI: 316.2474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $524,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $534,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,989 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.