460 9th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$85,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1910 4,356 sqft lot $46/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

2 unit in Niagara Falls, NY offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath in each. Property is located in prime AirBnB area, walking distance to the falls, fireworks and fun! Minutes to restaurants, gas stations, shopping and more! Needs a few repairs. Owner is selling property "as is. "

Key facts

• Minutes to shopping
• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1910

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO THE FALLS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO FIREWORKS
• MINUTES TO RESTAURANTS
• MINUTES TO GAS STATIONS
• MINUTES TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive. Per door: $608/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,282/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.28%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,017
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -50.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
346 Portage Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (+5%)	4mo	$142,500	$73	63
1166 Haeberle Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,932 (+4%)	13mo	$110,000	$57	60
519 Tronolone Pl	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,000 (+8%)	11mo	$142,500	$71	57
541 20th St	0.75mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,917 (+4%)	1mo	$112,000	$58	53
445 6th St	0.17mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,016 (+9%)	22mo	$72,000	$36	50
463 Elmwood Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,992 (+8%)	13mo	$73,000	$37	49
420 18th St	0.59mi	4/2.5	1,632 (-12%)	3mo	$115,000	$70	49
424 13th St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,043 (+11%)	21mo	$22,000	$11	47
1744 Welch Ave	0.55mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+9%)	13mo	$166,000	$82	43
466 4th St	0.32mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,114 (+14%)	16mo	$58,000	$27	42
614 20th St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,570 (-15%)	1mo	$100,000	$64	39
1926 Welch Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,690 (-8%)	13mo	$65,000	$38	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $63,668
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $155,255
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $1,215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 42%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,282
Total (2 units)			$2,282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.67mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	0.69mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.95mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	1d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $85,000 Pending 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-02-20
   price $85,000 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   2 unit in Niagara Falls, NY offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath in each. Property is located in prime AirBnB area, walking distance to the falls, fireworks and fun! Minutes to restaurants, gas stations, shopping and more! Needs a few repairs. Owner is selling property "as is. "

7. 2026-01-27
   price $95,000 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   2 unit in Niagara Falls, NY offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath in each. Property is located in prime AirBnB area, walking distance to the falls, fireworks and fun! Minutes to restaurants, gas stations, shopping and more! Needs a few repairs. Owner is selling property "as is. "

8. 2026-01-17
   listed $105,000 Active 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   2 unit in Niagara Falls, NY offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath in each. Property is located in prime AirBnB area, walking distance to the falls, fireworks and fun! Minutes to restaurants, gas stations, shopping and more! Needs a few repairs. Owner is selling property "as is. "

9. 2025-12-24
   historical
10. 2025-09-12
    price $105,000
11. 2025-09-02
    status Active
12. 2025-08-14
    status Pending
13. 2025-06-24
    listed $109,900 Active
14. 2019-12-11
    soldstatus $92,500 Closed Sale or Rented
15. 2019-12-09
    soldstatus $92,500
16. 2019-09-05
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
17. 2019-06-10
    listed $99,000 Active
18. 2018-08-06
    historical
19. 2018-02-06
    listed $129,000 Active
20. 2017-11-17
    soldstatus $15,500 Closed Sale or Rented
21. 2017-11-17
    soldstatus $15,500
22. 2017-09-27
    status Pending Sale
23. 2017-09-27
    listed $19,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $14,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,376
• After-tax cash flow: $11,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+327.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $85,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $95,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $105,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $105,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-12-11 Sold (MLS) $92,500 WNYREIS
• 2019-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2019-09-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-06-10 Listed $99,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-08-06 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2018-02-06 Listed $129,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 2017-11-17 Sold (MLS) $15,500 WNYREIS
• 2017-09-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-09-27 Listed $19,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,423 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.