3367 E Lake Rd · Thetford, MI 48420

$95,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1913 2.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Subject to short sale. Must sign a waiver before entering, there is a foundation issue and floors may be unsafe. Farmhouse built in 1880 that has no functioning utilities. Enter at own risk

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1913

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Two-acre lot; Lot dimensions approximately 194 x 450; Second garage, shed(s), and workshop on the property

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Basement present; Eight total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clio Area School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #269 of 540 in MI (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $95,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.21%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4045 E Lake Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-13%)	10mo	$273,000	$195	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $11,738
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $45,202
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48420

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,340/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $822

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $453	+0% $426	+5% $399	+10% $372
Rent	-10% $318	-5% $372	+0% $426	+5% $479	+10% $533
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $450	base $426	+0.5pp $401	+1.0pp $376

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 189-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $95,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,402 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$61/yr (+$5/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,340
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,819
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$916
• After-tax cash flow: $4,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clio Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2610110
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,368
• Composite: 30.83/100
• National rank: #6134
• State rank: #269 of 540 in MI

Livability — Thetford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,213

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.27%
• Current HPI: 186.7816
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-08 Listed $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,340 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.