2906 51st St SW · Lehigh Acres, FL 33976

$268,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Land · 93 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks

NEW BUILD - MOVE IN READY. WAS $289,990 - NOW $268,990. SPECIAL INCENTIVES: 4.75% fixed rate FHA/VA financing OR UP to 4% toward closing cost when using a preferred lender. 1,240-square-foot (air-conditioned) Bristol plan boasts a well-designed open floor plan that includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. The kitchen boasts upgraded 30” contemporary shaker-style cabinets, a spacious kitchen island with upgraded countertops, Whirlpool dishwasher, microwave, and range, refrigerator, washer & dryer, The Kitchen overlooks a spacious great room that features beautiful tile-plank flooring and vaulted ceilings. The expansive owner’s suite features a private b

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 137; Zoning: RS-1
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with automatic door opener; 2 covered spaces
• Security: Security/high-impact doors
• Utilities: Cable available; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry on level 1; Faces south; New construction
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Open porch; Security/high-impact doors; Rectangular lot; North exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Living/dining room; Pantry; Cable TV; Split bedrooms; Unfurnished; Single-hung windows; Impact glass windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 788 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $269k implies a 1070% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,978 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $126,210
• Equity at exit: $242,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $372,079
• Equity at exit: $522,588

Cash invested: $75,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33976

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 788
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $236,605

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-131	+0% $-224	+5% $-317	+10% $-410
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-306	+0% $-224	+5% $-142	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-155	base $-224	+0.5pp $-294	+1.0pp $-364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,248
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2908 51st St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,796	$1.28	5d	1	0.03mi
2819 51st St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1472	$2,250	$1.53	25d	1	0.08mi
4702 Loraine Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,000	$1.48	16d	1	0.31mi
2916 42nd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,930	$1.38	4d	1	0.57mi
2916 42nd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,960	$1.40	5d	1	0.57mi
2513 48th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,750	$1.23	18d	1	0.59mi
4701 Connie Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,900	$1.45	16d	1	0.61mi
2517 56th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,499	$1.36	5d	1	0.66mi
3012 40th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,950	$1.37	25d	1	0.73mi
3102 39th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1097	$1,630	$1.49	23d	1	0.83mi
3001 37th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1235	$1,705	$1.38	25d	1	0.84mi
3114 39th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,100	$1.41	5d	1	0.88mi
3114 39th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,100	$1.41	18d	1	0.88mi
577 Pierre Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,540	$1.26	12d	1	1.03mi
813 Alabama Rd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	25d	1	1.09mi
507 Peerless Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,100	$1.49	25d	1	1.13mi
507 Peerless Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,000	$1.42	5d	1	1.13mi
749 Alabama Rd S Unit 749 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,800	$1.41	4d	1	1.32mi
177 Pennfield St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,850	$1.48	25d	1	1.33mi
2612 31st St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1389	$1,799	$1.30	18d	1	1.35mi
2612 31st St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1365	$1,799	$1.32	16d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   price $268,990
3. 2026-05-06
   price $269,990
4. 2026-04-29
   price $272,990
5. 2026-04-24
   price $274,990
6. 2026-04-22
   price $278,490
7. 2026-04-17
   price $279,490
8. 2026-04-07
   status Active
9. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
10. 2026-03-24
    price $279,990
11. 2026-03-18
    price $280,990
12. 2026-03-11
    price $282,990
13. 2026-03-04
    price $284,990
14. 2026-02-09
    listed $289,990 Active
15. 2025-06-20
    soldstatus $23,000
16. 2021-08-12
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$7,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,778
• After-tax cash flow: $-907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,277
• Household income: $72,679
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 18% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.77%
• Current HPI: 340.4255
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5279.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $268,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $269,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $272,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $274,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $278,490 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $279,490 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $279,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $280,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $282,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $284,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $289,990 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $468 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.