650 Davi's Greenwood Ct · Vinton, TX 79821

$289,950

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,605 sqft · Land · 404 Days on market

Built 2025 6,189 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This contemporary home offers a sleek, open-concept layout with three bedrooms and two and a half baths. It features modern cabinetry throughout, blending style and functionality. The property is ideally situated in a prime location near schools, outlet malls, and grocery stores, offering both convenience and accessibility. Plus, with easy access to the I-10 freeway, commuting is a breeze.

Key facts

• 6,189 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-776/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,135 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Canutillo ISD (other): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #542 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 404 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $215,292 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 404 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $25,938
• Equity at exit: $125,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $103,987
• Equity at exit: $189,274

Cash invested: $81,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79821

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,490/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,235

Max offer price $278,526

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $17	+0% $-65	+5% $-147	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-150	+0% $-65	+5% $20	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $9	base $-65	+0.5pp $-140	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,488
• Closing costs: $8,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7409 Scarlet Oak Pl Canutillo, TX	4.0	3.0	1920	$2,200	$1.15	45d	1	0.59mi
355 Sol Ct Vinton, TX	4.0	3.0	1932	$2,100	$1.09	25d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,950 Active 404 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,950 Active 401 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,950 Active 400 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,950 Active 399 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,950 Active 398 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,950 Active 396 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,950 Active 393 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,950 Active 392 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,950 Active 391 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,950 Active 390 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,950 Active 387 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,950 Active 386 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,950 Active 385 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,950 Active 384 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,950 Active 383 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $289,950 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This contemporary home offers a sleek, open-concept layout with three bedrooms and two and a half baths. It features modern cabinetry throughout, blending style and functionality. The property is ideally situated in a prime location near schools, outlet malls, and grocery stores, offering both convenience and accessibility. Plus, with easy access to the I-10 freeway, commuting is a breeze.

17. 2026-01-07
    status Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This contemporary home offers a sleek, open-concept layout with three bedrooms and two and a half baths. It features modern cabinetry throughout, blending style and functionality. The property is ideally situated in a prime location near schools, outlet malls, and grocery stores, offering both convenience and accessibility. Plus, with easy access to the I-10 freeway, commuting is a breeze.

18. 2025-12-31
    historical 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This contemporary home offers a sleek, open-concept layout with three bedrooms and two and a half baths. It features modern cabinetry throughout, blending style and functionality. The property is ideally situated in a prime location near schools, outlet malls, and grocery stores, offering both convenience and accessibility. Plus, with easy access to the I-10 freeway, commuting is a breeze.

19. 2025-10-24
    price $287,950 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This contemporary home offers a sleek, open-concept layout with three bedrooms and two and a half baths. It features modern cabinetry throughout, blending style and functionality. The property is ideally situated in a prime location near schools, outlet malls, and grocery stores, offering both convenience and accessibility. Plus, with easy access to the I-10 freeway, commuting is a breeze.

20. 2025-05-06
    listed $285,950 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This contemporary home offers a sleek, open-concept layout with three bedrooms and two and a half baths. It features modern cabinetry throughout, blending style and functionality. The property is ideally situated in a prime location near schools, outlet malls, and grocery stores, offering both convenience and accessibility. Plus, with easy access to the I-10 freeway, commuting is a breeze.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,490 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,306 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,816/yr (+$318/mo · 256.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,242
• − Property taxes: −$1,490
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$8,435
• Taxable loss: −$5,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,419
• After-tax cash flow: $643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canutillo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812780
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,327
• Composite: 28.91/100
• National rank: #6636
• State rank: #542 of 826 in TX

Livability — Vinton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1135
• US rank: #20035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vinton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,550

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 28% White 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Current HPI: 207.1199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $289,950 GEPARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $287,950 GEPARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $285,950 GEPARMLS