1287 Turnbull Rd · Grundy, VA 24614

$121,400

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,925 sqft · Other public records · 275 Days on market

Built 1970 1.04 ac lot $63/sqft · at area comps Est $120k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1287 Turnbull Rd, a traditional brick home with solid bones and endless potential. Offering 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, this property provides abundant space for family living, entertaining, or creating a flexible floor plan tailored to your lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a formal dining room for gatherings, a dedicated office space, and a living area that connects to the kitchen through a convenient bar-style countertop — perfect for casual meals or conversation while cooking. The kitchen is a good size, ready to be updated to match your vision, and the four bedrooms provide plenty of private space, while the three bathrooms make daily routines more convenient. Outside, the home features both a carport and a garage for parking and storage, along with a small back patio that could be transformed into a charming outdoor retreat. This property is being sold as-is. It is not move-in ready and will require updates and repairs, but with its traditional brick exterior, functional layout, and spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom design, this home has all the ingredients to become something truly special. If you're ready to bring your creativity and vision, 1287 Turnbull Rd is waiting for you.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Bar-style countertop
• Small back patio

Tags

• TRADITIONAL BRICK HOME
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• BAR-STYLE COUNTERTOP
• SMALL BACK PATIO
• CARPORT AND GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $121k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $121k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#309 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buchanan County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #76 of 131 in VA (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $839 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,832 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.19%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,541
• List price: $121,400
• Delta: 1.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,236
• Equity at exit: $18,101

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $22,623
• Equity at exit: $10,496

Cash invested: $33,992 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24614

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$637
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $473/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $121,400

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $324	+0% $290	+5% $255	+10% $221
Rent	-10% $182	-5% $236	+0% $290	+5% $343	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $351	-0.5pp $321	base $290	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,350
• Closing costs: $3,642
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $121,400 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $121,400 Active 273 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $121,400 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $121,400 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $121,400 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $121,400 Active 269 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $121,400 Active 268 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $121,400 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $121,400 Active 264 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $121,400 Active 263 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $121,400 Active 262 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $121,400 Active 261 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $121,400 Active 258 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $121,400 Active 257 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $121,400 Active 256 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $121,400 Active 255 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    status Active 1220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1220 chars)

    Welcome to 1287 Turnbull Rd, a traditional brick home with solid bones and endless potential. Offering 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, this property provides abundant space for family living, entertaining, or creating a flexible floor plan tailored to your lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a formal dining room for gatherings, a dedicated office space, and a living area that connects to the kitchen through a convenient bar-style countertop — perfect for casual meals or conversation while cooking. The kitchen is a good size, ready to be updated to match your vision, and the four bedrooms provide plenty of private space, while the three bathrooms make daily routines more convenient. Outside, the home features both a carport and a garage for parking and storage, along with a small back patio that could be transformed into a charming outdoor retreat. This property is being sold as-is. It is not move-in ready and will require updates and repairs, but with its traditional brick exterior, functional layout, and spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom design, this home has all the ingredients to become something truly special. If you're ready to bring your creativity and vision, 1287 Turnbull Rd is waiting for you.

18. 2026-03-07
    historical 1220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1220 chars)

    Welcome to 1287 Turnbull Rd, a traditional brick home with solid bones and endless potential. Offering 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, this property provides abundant space for family living, entertaining, or creating a flexible floor plan tailored to your lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a formal dining room for gatherings, a dedicated office space, and a living area that connects to the kitchen through a convenient bar-style countertop — perfect for casual meals or conversation while cooking. The kitchen is a good size, ready to be updated to match your vision, and the four bedrooms provide plenty of private space, while the three bathrooms make daily routines more convenient. Outside, the home features both a carport and a garage for parking and storage, along with a small back patio that could be transformed into a charming outdoor retreat. This property is being sold as-is. It is not move-in ready and will require updates and repairs, but with its traditional brick exterior, functional layout, and spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom design, this home has all the ingredients to become something truly special. If you're ready to bring your creativity and vision, 1287 Turnbull Rd is waiting for you.

19. 2025-09-06
    listed $121,400 Active 1220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1220 chars)

    Welcome to 1287 Turnbull Rd, a traditional brick home with solid bones and endless potential. Offering 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, this property provides abundant space for family living, entertaining, or creating a flexible floor plan tailored to your lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a formal dining room for gatherings, a dedicated office space, and a living area that connects to the kitchen through a convenient bar-style countertop — perfect for casual meals or conversation while cooking. The kitchen is a good size, ready to be updated to match your vision, and the four bedrooms provide plenty of private space, while the three bathrooms make daily routines more convenient. Outside, the home features both a carport and a garage for parking and storage, along with a small back patio that could be transformed into a charming outdoor retreat. This property is being sold as-is. It is not move-in ready and will require updates and repairs, but with its traditional brick exterior, functional layout, and spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom design, this home has all the ingredients to become something truly special. If you're ready to bring your creativity and vision, 1287 Turnbull Rd is waiting for you.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $473 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$522/yr (+$44/mo · 110.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,800
• − Property taxes: −$473
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$3,532
• Taxable income: $1,598
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$384
• After-tax cash flow: $3,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buchanan County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,669
• Composite: 47.84/100
• National rank: #2221
• State rank: #76 of 131 in VA

Livability — Grundy

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #11111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,992

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,160 people
• By 2030: 18,734 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 16,071 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 13,815 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 10,376 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 8,432 · -58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.6) · D 14.5% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -65.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -70.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.6 2020: R+67.6 2016: R+60.4 2012: R+34.7 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.05%
• Current HPI: 97.3351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Relisted — SWVAR
• 2026-03-07 Delisted — SWVAR
• 2025-09-06 Listed $121,400 SWVAR

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $473 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.