Cabin 188 Northwoods · Cougar, WA 98616

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition $169/sqft · 21% below area Est $184k · 21% under $246/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute cabin on upper level of very desirable Northwoods Community at the tip of Swift Reservoir and across from the Eagle Cliff Store. Newer tankless hot water heater and newer water pipes. Woodburning woodstove heats entire cabin and keeps it cozy. Seller will remove some personal belongings but there will be remaining items to help a buyer get started in their new cabin. Metal roof and small tool shed. Enjoy some of best fishing in the river, some of the best snow mobiling in the winter, hiking, boating and many other summer and winter activities. These cabins are only about 90 minutes from Vancouver and is surrounded by the beautiful Gifford Pinchot National Forest. Off grid living in the middle of the most peaceful and quiet of locations.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Tool shed
• Off grid living

Tags

• TANKLESS HOT WATER HEATER
• WOODBURNING WOODSTOVE
• METAL ROOF
• TOOL SHED
• OFF GRID LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (8.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in Cougar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Stevenson-Carson School District (rural): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #209 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Skamania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,518
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -20.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
Cabin 157 Northwoods	0.20mi	3/1.0	856 (0%)	2mo	$175,000	$204	88
199 Northwoods Cabin	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+1%)	7mo	$295,000	$341	84
Northwoods #106	0.37mi	3/1.0	832 (-3%)	15mo	$282,500	$340	66
Cabin 131 Northwoods	0.23mi	3/1.0	976 (+14%)	14mo	$144,500	$148	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $16,552
• Equity at exit: $69,758

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $61,531
• Equity at exit: $111,193

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98616

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$246
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,580

Max offer price $132,788

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-34	+0% $-84	+5% $-134	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-143	+0% $-84	+5% $-26	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-48	base $-84	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $246 · $2,952/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $155,000 Active 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    Super cute cabin on upper level of very desirable Northwoods Community at the tip of Swift Reservoir and across from the Eagle Cliff Store. Newer tankless hot water heater and newer water pipes. Woodburning woodstove heats entire cabin and keeps it cozy. Seller will remove some personal belongings but there will be remaining items to help a buyer get started in their new cabin. Metal roof and small tool shed. Enjoy some of best fishing in the river, some of the best snow mobiling in the winter, hiking, boating and many other summer and winter activities. These cabins are only about 90 minutes from Vancouver and is surrounded by the beautiful Gifford Pinchot National Forest. Off grid living in the middle of the most peaceful and quiet of locations.

18. 2022-10-13
    historical 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Seller may take living room sofa; however, should be leaving most other furnishings and decorator items. Cabin is located on upper level in Northwoods with nice sun exposure and a very large driveway, parking area with great turnaround for boat, cars, etc. Covered front deck/porch for lounging and enjoyment of the beautiful wooded area. Owner pays yearly lease, HOA dues and property taxes. Storage shed and metal roof. Great sun exposure.

19. 2022-10-13
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Seller may take living room sofa; however, should be leaving most other furnishings and decorator items. Cabin is located on upper level in Northwoods with nice sun exposure and a very large driveway, parking area with great turnaround for boat, cars, etc. Covered front deck/porch for lounging and enjoyment of the beautiful wooded area. Owner pays yearly lease, HOA dues and property taxes. Storage shed and metal roof. Great sun exposure.

20. 2022-09-27
    status Pending 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Seller may take living room sofa; however, should be leaving most other furnishings and decorator items. Cabin is located on upper level in Northwoods with nice sun exposure and a very large driveway, parking area with great turnaround for boat, cars, etc. Covered front deck/porch for lounging and enjoyment of the beautiful wooded area. Owner pays yearly lease, HOA dues and property taxes. Storage shed and metal roof. Great sun exposure.

21. 2022-08-15
    listed $135,000 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Seller may take living room sofa; however, should be leaving most other furnishings and decorator items. Cabin is located on upper level in Northwoods with nice sun exposure and a very large driveway, parking area with great turnaround for boat, cars, etc. Covered front deck/porch for lounging and enjoyment of the beautiful wooded area. Owner pays yearly lease, HOA dues and property taxes. Storage shed and metal roof. Great sun exposure.

22. 2013-02-14
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold
23. 2012-12-28
    status Pending
24. 2012-09-17
    historical Short Sale Pending
25. 2012-08-11
    price $80,000
26. 2012-05-21
    listed $85,000 Active
27. 2007-07-10
    soldstatus $130,000
28. 2007-04-28
    historical
29. 2006-09-13
    listed $132,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − HOA: −$2,952
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$803
• After-tax cash flow: $-210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This cabin requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Upgrades to the interior, exterior, and HVAC system would significantly enhance its appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Minor wooden deck — slight wear
• Minor wooden cabinets — slight wear
• Minor wood-burning stove — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace wooden deck — improves safety and appearance
• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes space and increases value
• Both install new flooring — enhances comfort and appearance
• Both upgrade HVAC system — improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
wooden deck · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
wooden cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
wood-burning stove · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace wooden deck — improves safety and appearance ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes space and increases value ↑
• Both install new flooring — enhances comfort and appearance ↑
• Both upgrade HVAC system — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stevenson-Carson School District
• NCES district ID: 5308520
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,512
• Composite: 37.73/100
• National rank: #8766
• State rank: #209 of 291 in WA

Livability — Cougar

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 81

Population outlook (Skamania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,886 people
• By 2030: 12,036 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 11,995 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 11,607 · -2.3%
• By 2075: 10,881 · -8.5%
• By 2100: 10,392 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skamania

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.0% · R 54.2% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+9.5 2016: R+12.6 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.55%
• Current HPI: 235.7646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+17.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $155,000 RMLS
• 2022-10-13 Delisted — RMLS
• 2022-10-13 Sold (MLS) $125,000 RMLS
• 2022-09-27 Pending — RMLS
• 2022-08-15 Listed $135,000 RMLS
• 2013-02-14 Sold (MLS) $75,000 RMLS
• 2012-12-28 Pending — RMLS
• 2012-09-17 Contingent — RMLS
• 2012-08-11 Price Changed $80,000 RMLS
• 2012-05-21 Listed $85,000 RMLS
• 2007-07-10 Sold (MLS) $130,000 RMLS
• 2007-04-28 Delisted — RMLS
• 2006-09-13 Listed $132,500 RMLS