21815 Mossy Field Ln · Houston, TX 77388

$239,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,622 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2006 2,556 sqft lot Est $268k · 11% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home priced to sell 4/2/2 home located close to shopping and dining and an easy commute to Woodlands and I45. Home has new carpet and paint and ready for a family to move in.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Designer upgrades
• Primary suite

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• DESIGNER UPGRADES
• MODERN FINISHES
• PRIMARY SUITE
• RENOVATED PRIVATE ENSUITE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Managed by First Service Residential; Annual association fee of $725

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 2006
• Construction: Cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fence (back yard); Subdivision setting; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Quartz counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14x13); Three additional bedrooms on second floor (approx. 11x11, 11x11, 12x12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Thermostat (programmable)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Bath in primary bedroom; Quartz counters; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Schindewolf Int (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,152 students, 55% FRL); Klein Collins H S (math 40% / reading 55%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,422 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,942 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,630
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21718 Grassy Hill Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+1%)	1mo	$225,000	$138	89
21806 Grassy Hill Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,672 (+3%)	4mo	$199,900	$120	86
21627 Falvel Misty Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (+1%)	4mo	$210,000	$128	76
4107 Mossy Spring Ln	0.17mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,754 (+8%)	2mo	$315,000	$180	68
3810 Nutwood Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (-0%)	1mo	$270,995	$168	65
3962 Mossy Place Ln	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,388 (-14%)	3mo	$199,900	$144	63
3803 Oak Lace Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-1%)	2mo	$299,000	$186	61
3938 Falvel Shadow Creek Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,394 (-14%)	4mo	$229,500	$165	60
22306 Acorn Valley Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,476 (-9%)	3mo	$245,000	$166	57
21323 Deerhaven Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,671 (+3%)	4mo	$260,000	$156	55
3927 Falvel Cove Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-12%)	4mo	$259,000	$181	51
21303 Deerhaven Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,750 (+8%)	3mo	$245,000	$140	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-50,705
• Equity at exit: $35,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-75,823
• Equity at exit: $20,708

Cash invested: $67,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77388

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,219 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,256
• Tax from tax record: −$425 /mo · $5,095/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,330

Max offer price $224,137

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-19	+0% $-87	+5% $-155	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-262	-5% $-175	+0% $-87	+5% $1	+10% $88
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-26	base $-87	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,875
• Closing costs: $7,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21771 Mossy Field Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1631	$2,150	$1.32	44d	1	0.03mi
4018 Falvel Shadow Creek Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	1458	$1,960	$1.34	12d	1	0.15mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,170	$1.37	0d	1	0.19mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 4242 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,210	$1.40	12d	1	0.19mi
3880 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,536	$2.45	0d	29	0.67mi
3402 Almondwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,795	$1.27	13d	1	0.67mi
3607 Nutwood Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1299	$2,399	$1.85	44d	1	0.74mi
4310 Stallion Brook Ln Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	2096	$2,175	$1.04	21d	1	1.04mi
21400 Big Spring Valley Ave Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1074	$2,370	$2.21	3d	67	1.21mi
2953 FM 2920 Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,280	$2.29	0d	23	1.31mi
21330 N Tangle Creek Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,836	$1.49	44d	1	1.35mi
4703 Owens Creek Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,920	$1.16	20d	1	1.36mi
4703 Fleming Downe Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,950	$1.31	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,500 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,500 Pending 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $239,500 Pending 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,500 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,500 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,500 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,500 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,500 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,500 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,500 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,500 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,500 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,500 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,500 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,500 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    listed $239,500 Active
17. 2011-06-28
    soldstatus 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Home priced to sell 4/2/2 home located close to shopping and dining and an easy commute to Woodlands and I45. Home has new carpet and paint and ready for a family to move in.

18. 2011-06-17
    historical 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Home priced to sell 4/2/2 home located close to shopping and dining and an easy commute to Woodlands and I45. Home has new carpet and paint and ready for a family to move in.

19. 2011-04-06
    listed $76,130 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Home priced to sell 4/2/2 home located close to shopping and dining and an easy commute to Woodlands and I45. Home has new carpet and paint and ready for a family to move in.

20. 2008-05-07
    historical
21. 2008-03-26
    listed $129,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,095 · $425/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,095 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,416
• − Property taxes: −$5,095
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$6,967
• Taxable loss: −$5,023
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,206
• After-tax cash flow: $162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,425
• Household income: $102,323
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.68%
• Current HPI: 228.128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+85.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $239,500 HARMLS
• 2011-06-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-04-06 Listed $76,130 HARMLS
• 2008-05-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-03-26 Listed $129,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,095 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.