617 Mill St · Neodesha, KS 66757

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 191 Days on market

Built 1940 7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Key facts

• Partially framed
• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1940

Tags

• BRAND-NEW STRUCTURAL BONES
• PARTIALLY FRAMED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.18 acres; Not in a flood plain
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Frame construction; Composition roof; One-story (bungalow)
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Estimated age: 76–100 years
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Bungalow floor plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#196 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Neodesha (town): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #121 of 169 in KS (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $125 of equity ($311 loan paydown + $-186 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Wilson County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.73%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
708 Mill St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+4%)	3mo	$134,000	$99	79
306 S 5th St	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,283 (-2%)	11mo	$149,500	$117	78
519 Mill St	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,266 (-3%)	12mo	$89,999	$71	76
1013 Osage St	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,246 (-4%)	2mo	$110,000	$88	67
615 Mill St	0.01mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,139 (-13%)	10mo	$22,000	$19	65
912 Indiana St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,339 (+3%)	13mo	$159,900	$119	59
525 S 5th N/A	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (-12%)	13mo	$105,000	$91	57
1006 Osage St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,147 (-12%)	1mo	$20,000	$17	55
501 N 6th St	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,236 (-5%)	13mo	$92,500	$75	55
702 Illinois St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,212 (-7%)	10mo	$29,000	$24	48
306 N 5th St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (+14%)	7mo	$144,000	$96	42
1015 Lincoln St	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-14%)	12mo	$30,000	$27	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $30,417
• Equity at exit: $12,143

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $73,450
• Equity at exit: $13,878

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66757

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-11-19
   listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,384
• After-tax cash flow: $4,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neodesha
• NCES district ID: 2009900
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,989
• Composite: 23.54/100
• National rank: #7863
• State rank: #121 of 169 in KS

Livability — Neodesha

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #8894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Neodesha, KS
• Population (ZIP): 3,225

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,872 people
• By 2030: 7,383 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 6,533 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 5,923 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 5,134 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 4,788 · -39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.4) · D 18.0% · R 80.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -62.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.4 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+63.1 2012: R+54.0 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Current HPI: 131.4107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Listed $45,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid