631 Millard St · Mason, TX 76856

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1930 0.32 ac lot $111/sqft · 50% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage-bungalow house with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath on lot that backs to wet-weather Koocks Branch Creek. Original wood floors throughout, screened back porch, fenced on 2 sides and the front of property has a unique rock wall. Perfect yard for your Spring garden!

Key facts

• Screened back porch
• Unique rock wall
• Original wood floors

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• SCREENED BACK PORCH
• FENCED ON 2 SIDES
• UNIQUE ROCK WALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $57k (42.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $59k (40.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $57k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#662 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mason ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #76 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mason El (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 291 students, 50% FRL); Mason J H (math 52% / reading 62%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 204 students, 48% FRL); Mason H S (math 72% / reading 64%, grade B, #147 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 214 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Mason County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,452 (42.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.18%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,302
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -50.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,737
• Equity at exit: $53,845

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $31,396
• Equity at exit: $91,115

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76856

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,690/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$124
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $888

Max offer price $57,452

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-179	-5% $-207	+0% $-235	+5% $-263	+10% $-291
Rent	-10% $-282	-5% $-258	+0% $-235	+5% $-212	+10% $-189
Rate	-1.0pp $-185	-0.5pp $-210	base $-235	+0.5pp $-261	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
511 Merrill ST Mason, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$590	$0.84	45d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 296-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 114 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    price $99,000 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Cottage-bungalow house with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath on lot that backs to wet-weather Koocks Branch Creek. Original wood floors throughout, screened back porch, fenced on 2 sides and the front of property has a unique rock wall. Perfect yard for your Spring garden!

19. 2026-02-05
    listed $110,000 Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Cottage-bungalow house with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath on lot that backs to wet-weather Koocks Branch Creek. Original wood floors throughout, screened back porch, fenced on 2 sides and the front of property has a unique rock wall. Perfect yard for your Spring garden!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,690 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$121/yr (+$10/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $7,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,690
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$566
• − Management: −$566
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$4,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mason ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829280
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,797
• Composite: 50.18/100
• National rank: #1898
• State rank: #76 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mason

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #12456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mason, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,525

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,979 people
• By 2030: 3,930 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 3,836 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 3,838 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 4,230 · +6.3%
• By 2100: 4,260 · +7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.0) · D 17.2% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -65.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.0 2020: R+62.0 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+60.1 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.62%
• Current HPI: 206.7593
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $99,000 CHCMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $110,000 CHCMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,690 · -10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.