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13017 Sapphire Lake Ln
D- Composite 37.58
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +4.9/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.8/10.0
  • Rent growth +3.5/5.0
  • Schools +3.4/10.0
  • Livability +3.1/5.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$299,000

13017 Sapphire Lake Ln · Texas City, TX 77568
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,259 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market
Built 2020 Good condition 5,161 sqft lot 2-car garage $132/sqft · 18% below area Est $367k · 18% under $167/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Highland Homes’ Windemere Plan, a stunning blend of modern design and ultimate comfort. This thoughtfully designed home features a private study with an accompanying powder room, perfect as a remote office, another bedroom, or quiet retreat. The Family Room and Dining Room boast soaring ceilings that flood the space with natural light, creating an open, airy atmosphere. Upstairs, a versatile loft near two secondary bedrooms makes for an ideal game room, home theater, or cozy hangout space. Step outside and embrace resort-style living with a 12-Acre Crystal Clear Water Lagoon just a short walk away. The community offers beautiful parks, state-of-the-art fitness centers, inviting clubhouses, and sparkling pools—something for everyone to enjoy. Exciting future developments include nearby restaurants, retail shopping, HEB Grocery, and a brand-new school currently under construction. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your tour today and start living your dream lifestyle!

Key facts

  • 5,161 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-786 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (25.5% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (12.4% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $223k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
  • Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Elva C Lobit Middle (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 582 students, 52% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $222,838 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.88%
Cap rate
3.40%
Cash-on-cash
-10.31%
DSCR
0.54
GRM
9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$366,506
List price
$299,000
Delta
-18.42%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
2825 Golden Isle Dr 0.37mi 4/2.5 2,290 (+1%) 0mo $399,990 $175 80
3102 Mariner Island Dr 0.13mi 4/2.0 2,081 (-8%) 1mo $323,990 $156 78
13026 Oleander Bay Ln 0.21mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,163 (-4%) 0mo $314,990 $146 76
13310 Suntail Ct 0.46mi 4/2.5 2,316 (+2%) 0mo $309,900 $134 74
2801 Bayrose Dr 0.44mi 4/3.0 2,200 (-3%) 0mo $318,400 $145 73
13113 Sapphire Lake Ln 0.04mi 3/2.5 (-1) 1,963 (-13%) 1mo $319,445 $163 70
13337 Silver Egret Ln 0.34mi 4/3.0 2,045 (-10%) 1mo $264,000 $129 65
13302 Rosemary Dr 0.17mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,970 (-13%) 0mo $334,990 $170 64
13204 Pinnacle Beach Dr 0.31mi 4/2.0 1,922 (-15%) 0mo $327,990 $171 58
13718 Ballast Green Dr 0.53mi 3/2.0 (-1) 2,101 (-7%) 1mo $359,130 $171 55
2433 Mar Vista Ln 0.58mi 4/2.0 2,020 (-11%) 1mo $346,400 $171 52
2601 Village Azalea Dr 0.39mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,932 (-14%) 1mo $299,900 $155 50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-34.9%
Equity multiple
-0.14×
Total profit
$-95,467
Equity at exit
$44,582
10-year hold
IRR
-36.1%
Equity multiple
-0.61×
Total profit
$-134,901
Equity at exit
$25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
199 active · 74 under contract
Months of supply
10.9 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$349,900 ($158/sqft)
Median days on market
115 d
This list price
9% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+2.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

Home prices YoY
-22.7%
Rents YoY
4.0%
Active inventory
783
Price-to-rent
9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,618 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,568
Tax from tax record
$928 /mo · $11,142/yr
Insurance
$125
Flood insurance flood zone
−$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA
$167
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$550
Net cashflow
$-786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,613
Max offer price $222,838
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-617 -5% $-701 +0% $-786 +5% $-871 +10% $-955
Rent -10% $-993 -5% $-890 +0% $-786 +5% $-683 +10% $-579
Rate -1.0pp $-636 -0.5pp $-710 base $-786 +0.5pp $-864 +1.0pp $-942

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$74,750
Closing costs
$8,970
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 15 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
2600 Golden Palms Ln La Marque, TX 4.0 3.0 2411 $3,200 $1.33 17d 1 0.33mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX 3.0 2.0 1803 $2,506 $1.39 71d 1 0.59mi
12306 Wavecrest Rd La Marque, TX 4.0 2.0 1844 $2,099 $1.14 27d 1 0.80mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX 4.0 2.5 2134 $2,329 $1.09 12d 1 0.82mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX 4.0 2.0 1844 $2,179 $1.18 0d 1 0.82mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX 4.0 2.0 1844 $2,079 $1.13 54d 1 0.84mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX 4.0 2.5 2134 $2,269 $1.06 7d 1 0.90mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–3.5 2268 $3,630 $1.60 0d 1 0.91mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX 4.0 2.0 1856 $2,181 $1.18 60d 1 1.01mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX 4.0 2.5 2134 $2,329 $1.09 30d 1 1.02mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX 4.0 2.5 2134 $2,309 $1.08 16d 1 1.06mi
944 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX 3.0 2.5 1658 $2,099 $1.27 10d 1 1.07mi
114 Mustang Stampede Dr La Marque, TX 3.0 2.0 1752 $2,050 $1.17 50d 1 1.21mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX 3.0 2.0 1754 $2,200 $1.25 42d 1 1.22mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr Texas City, TX 3.0–4.0 2.5–3.5 1825 $2,650 $1.45 0d 5 1.32mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Association-managed community pool
HOA & community
Association: LMG HoustonAnnual association fee (covers clubhouse and recreation facilities)Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, sport court, playground, park, trails, picnic area, meeting/party room

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Security
Controlled accessCommunity security/guard
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction
Brick and stone construction
Exterior features
Covered patioDeckPatioFully fenced backyardPrivate yardSprinkler/irrigation systemPond on lotSubdivision setting

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveKitchen islandWalk-in pantry
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 15 x 13)Bedroom on first floor (approx. 11 x 10)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 13 x 10)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 13 x 10)
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomPrimary bathroom with double vanity, soaking tub and separate shower
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features
Double vanityHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboBath in primary bedroomSoaking tubSeparate showerTub/shower combinationWalk-in pantryCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $167/mo · $2,004/yr

Likely covers
waterpoolgym

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $299,000 Active 85 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 84 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 82 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 79 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 78 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 77 DOM
  9. 2026-07-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 76 DOM
  10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $299,000 Active 74 DOM
  11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,000 Active 72 DOM
  12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 71 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 70 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $299,000 Active 69 DOM
  15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $314,000 Active 68 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $314,000 Active 66 DOM
  17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $314,000 Active 65 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $314,000 Active 64 DOM
  19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $314,000 Active 63 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $314,000 Active 62 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $314,000 Active 61 DOM
  22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $314,000 Active 60 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $314,000 Active 59 DOM
  24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $314,000 Active 58 DOM
  25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $314,000 Active 57 DOM
  26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $314,000 Active 55 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $314,000 Active 54 DOM
  28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $314,000 Active 53 DOM
  29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $314,000 Active 52 DOM
  30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $314,000 Active 51 DOM
  31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $314,000 Active 50 DOM
  32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $314,000 Active 49 DOM
  33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $314,000 Active 48 DOM
  34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $314,000 Active 47 DOM
  35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $314,000 Active 46 DOM
  36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $314,000 Active 45 DOM
  37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $314,000 Active 44 DOM
  38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $314,000 Active 42 DOM
  39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $314,000 Active 40 DOM
  40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $314,000 Active 39 DOM
  41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $314,000 Active 36 DOM
  42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $314,000 Active 35 DOM
  43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $314,000 Active 34 DOM
  44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $314,000 Active 33 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $314,000 Active 31 DOM
  46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $314,000 Active 27 DOM
  47. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $314,000 Active 26 DOM
  48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,000 Active 25 DOM
  49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,000 Active 22 DOM
  50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$11,142 · $928/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$11,142 · $928/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$31,419
− Mortgage interest
−$16,749
− Property taxes
−$11,142
− Insurance
−$2,292
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,514
− Management
−$2,514
− HOA
−$2,004
− Depreciation
−$8,698
Taxable loss
−$14,493
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$3,478
After-tax cash flow
$-5,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Texas City is in good condition with modern design and functional living spaces. It's move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
  • Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition
F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Elva C Lobit Middle F TX #1,103/1,662 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Dickinson ISD
NCES district ID
4817070
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
40% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$61,318
Composite
35.16/100
National rank
#5005
State rank
#366 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

Score
62/100
State rank
#907
US rank
#16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Texas City, TX
County
Galveston County · 390,640 people
City population
49,936
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
23,083
Household income
$74,694
Rent vs Own
28.0% rent · 72.0% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
390,640 people
By 2030
425,226 · +8.9%
By 2040
493,765 · +26.4%
By 2050
559,698 · +43.3%
By 2075
719,260 · +84.1%
By 2100
819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
Race & ethnicity
White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada
Languages at home
77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

2024 margin
Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing
-7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
All cycles
2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-15.1% since first listed
20 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-08 Price Changed $314,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-06-08 Price Changed $314,900 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-13 Listed $329,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-04-24 Coming Soon $329,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-05-30 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2025-05-28 Sold (MLS) HARMLS
  • 2025-05-16 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2025-04-28 Pending HARMLS
  • 2025-04-08 Price Changed $342,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-02-13 Price Changed $344,900 HARMLS
  • 2024-12-31 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
  • 2024-12-31 Coming Soon $349,900 HARMLS
  • 2024-02-16 Rental Removed $2,800 HARMLS
  • 2024-02-08 Listed for Rent $2,800 HARMLS
  • 2023-03-28 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2023-02-08 Price Changed $359,900 HARMLS
  • 2023-01-15 Price Changed $368,000 HARMLS
  • 2022-12-09 Listed $370,000 HARMLS
  • 2022-12-09 Coming Soon HARMLS
  • 2020-05-11 Sold (Public Records) Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,142 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…