105 Hanley Rd · Fulton, NY 13074

$149,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1989 7.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Set on 7.5 beautiful acres, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers just under 1,000 sq. ft. of comfortable living space with luxury vinyl flooring throughout, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, and an open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The property features modern appliances and offers the opportunity to easily add a walk-in shower in the primary bath, creating two full bathrooms. Step outside to a small back deck overlooking the backyard and fire pit area, ideal for relaxing or gathering with friends and family. A large pole barn at the back of the property provides endless possibilities for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. With so much space and potential, this pr

Key facts

• 7.5 beautiful acres
• Small back deck
• Modern appliances

Tags

• 7.5 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN SHOWER OPPORTUNITY
• SMALL BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 6.9% in Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#907 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Fulton City School District (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #554 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $150k implies a 733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.91%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
256 Phinney Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-14%)	12mo	$67,500	$80	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $105,947
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.98×
• Total profit: $292,895
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13074

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,830/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-08
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-08-29
   price $149,900
4. 2025-08-09
   listed $159,900 Active
5. 2023-08-08
   soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,830 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$352/yr (+$29/mo · 19.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,830
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$553
• After-tax cash flow: $4,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton City School District
• NCES district ID: 3611700
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,337
• Composite: 30.49/100
• National rank: #6220
• State rank: #554 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fulton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #17723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,471

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.52%
• Current HPI: 299.6269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+732.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-09-08 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2025-08-09 Listed $159,900 CNYIS
• 2023-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,830 · +23.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.