1011 W La Cadena Dr #30 · Riverside, CA 92509

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 1967 Fair condition $175/sqft · 42% above area Est $99k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1967
• Listed 69 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.0% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#337 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, commute B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D, crime F.
• Riverside Unified (urban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #574 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.47%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,908
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 41.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $44,647
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $113,819
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92509

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $1,126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1054 Orange St Unit 207 Riverside, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$1,750	$2.38	24d	1	0.24mi
716 N Orange St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$4,999	$4.63	1d	1	0.45mi
3516 Tyco Dr Riverside, CA	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,600	$2.51	43d	1	0.52mi
3647 Elliotta Dr Riverside, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$2,895	$2.76	43d	1	0.59mi
3745 Strong St Riverside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	782	$1,995	$2.55	4d	2	0.70mi
3845 Strong St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1032	$2,800	$2.71	43d	1	0.80mi
1221 Villa St Unit A Riverside, CA	2.0	1.0	588	$1,650	$2.81	11d	1	0.98mi
3307 Spruce St Riverside, CA	2.0	1.0	848	$2,700	$3.18	19d	1	1.03mi
2770 Atlanta Ave Riverside, CA	2.0	1.0	910	$2,030	$2.23	2d	1	1.30mi
1305 Massachusetts Ave #103 Riverside, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,950	$2.27	43d	1	1.36mi
1251 Massachusetts Ave Riverside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	785	$2,300	$2.93	43d	7	1.47mi
1046 Spruce St Riverside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$2,400	$3.08	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $11,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,880
• After-tax cash flow: $10,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and paint the exterior. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — basic and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes and increases appeal
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes and increases appeal
• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · basic and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$6,000–30,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes and increases appeal ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes and increases appeal ↑
• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverside Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,038
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #574 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #11613

Category grades

Amenities C Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverside, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 367,890
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 81,182
• Household income: $95,355
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1694.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% White 17% Two or more races 16% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.91%
• Current HPI: 464.8939
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $140,000 CRMLS