641 Blake Ave · Marion, OH 43302

$38,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 303 Days on market

Built 1915 5,227 sqft lot $49/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for fix and flip or buy and hold.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1915
• Listed 302 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.3% vs local median 6.8% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion City (town): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #600 of 656 in OH (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rutherford B. Hayes Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,293 of 1,584 statewide, top 83%, 226 students, 0% FRL); Ulysses S. Grant Middle School (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #597 of 654 statewide, top 92%, 998 students, 0% FRL); Harding High School (math 16% / reading 36%, grade F, #636 of 781 statewide, top 82%, 1,050 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 67% district-wide (67 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 53 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $33,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.89%
• DSCR: 4.82
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,356
• List price: $38,000
• Delta: -59.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
394 Avondale Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (+15%)	1mo	$40,000	$45	57
230 Edwards St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	704 (-10%)	1mo	$100,000	$142	55
424 Toledo Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	864 (+11%)	23mo	$90,000	$104	53
405 Toledo Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	860 (+10%)	21mo	$18,000	$21	49
636 Oak St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	704 (-10%)	2mo	$115,000	$163	48
501 NE Scranton Ave NE Unit n/a	0.19mi	3/1.5	882 (+13%)	23mo	$38,000	$43	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $42,355
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.34×
• Total profit: $99,372
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43302

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $345/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $309

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $783	-5% $772	+0% $762	+5% $751	+10% $740
Rent	-10% $661	-5% $711	+0% $762	+5% $812	+10% $862
Rate	-1.0pp $781	-0.5pp $771	base $762	+0.5pp $752	+1.0pp $742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Garden St Unit 131 Marion, OH	2.0	1.0	752	$900	$1.20	45d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $38,000 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $38,000 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,000 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,000 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,000 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,000 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $38,000 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $38,000 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,000 Active 291 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $38,000 Active 290 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $38,000 Active 289 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $38,000 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $38,000 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,000 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,000 Active 283 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,000 Active 282 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $38,000 Active 281 DOM
18. 2025-11-30
    status Active 51-char remark

    Show marketing remark (51 chars)

    Great opportunity for fix and flip or buy and hold.

19. 2025-11-29
    historical 51-char remark

    Show marketing remark (51 chars)

    Great opportunity for fix and flip or buy and hold.

20. 2025-08-22
    listed $38,000 Active 51-char remark

    Show marketing remark (51 chars)

    Great opportunity for fix and flip or buy and hold.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $345 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $469 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$124/yr (+$10/mo · 35.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$345
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $9,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,174
• After-tax cash flow: $6,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion City
• NCES district ID: 3904433
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,327
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8306
• State rank: #600 of 656 in OH

Livability — Marion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #12605

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, OH
• County: Marion County · 53,702 people
• City population: 53,702
• Metro: Marion, OH
• Population (ZIP): 53,702
• Household income: $55,057
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1554.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,078 people
• By 2030: 60,049 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 50,604 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 40,162 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 29,105 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.4) · D 28.9% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -41.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.4 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+7.6 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.52%
• Current HPI: 223.5344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marion, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-30 Relisted — CBRMLS
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — CBRMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $38,000 CBRMLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $345 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.