5206 Seibert Rd · Semmes, AL 36587

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2004 0.38 ac lot Est $180k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FORECLOSURE MAY BE SUBJECT TO ALABAMA RIGHT OF REDEMPTION LAWS. 3/2 BRICK HOME ACROSS FROM SEMMES MIDDLE SCHOOL. GREAT FLOOR PLAN WITH OPEN KITCHEN AREA WITH LOTS OF CABINETS AND A PANTRY. TRAY CEILING IN LIVING ROOM. WALK IN CLOSETS IN ALL BEDROOMS. CONCRETE PATIO. ONE CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.

Key facts

• Large concrete patio
• Tray ceiling
• Linen closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• TRAY CEILING
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• LINEN CLOSET
• LARGE CONCRETE PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space; Garage faces front
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 2004
• Construction: Brick 4 sides construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Privacy fencing in backyard; Outbuilding/shed; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Separate dining room; Eat-in kitchen with pantry and solid surface counters; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($636/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Semmes Elementary School (math 37% / reading 63%, grade D+, #119 of 627 statewide, top 19%, 546 students, 51% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 67% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,218 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,075
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5206 Seibert Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,225 (0%)	0mo	$210,000	$171	100
10574 Titleist Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+10%)	18mo	$198,000	$147	66
5280 Fairview Dr E	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+1%)	9mo	$52,000	$42	59
10874 Kelsey Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+15%)	19mo	$26,000	$19	41
5079 Fairview Highlands Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-9%)	19mo	$95,000	$85	38
5260 Waltman Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,381 (+13%)	23mo	$209,000	$151	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-25,072
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,849
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36587

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $485/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $103	+0% $53	+5% $3	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $-1	+0% $53	+5% $107	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $97	base $53	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5178 Fairview Highland Dr Wilmer, AL	3.0	1.5	1064	$1,295	$1.22	22d	1	0.59mi
11297 Old Moffat Rd Wilmer, AL	3.0	1.5	1128	$1,500	$1.33	22d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2017-10-06
   soldstatus $122,000
4. 2014-05-30
   soldstatus $70,000 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   FORECLOSURE MAY BE SUBJECT TO ALABAMA RIGHT OF REDEMPTION LAWS. 3/2 BRICK HOME ACROSS FROM SEMMES MIDDLE SCHOOL. GREAT FLOOR PLAN WITH OPEN KITCHEN AREA WITH LOTS OF CABINETS AND A PANTRY. TRAY CEILING IN LIVING ROOM. WALK IN CLOSETS IN ALL BEDROOMS. CONCRETE PATIO. ONE CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.

5. 2014-03-22
   listed $69,500 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   FORECLOSURE MAY BE SUBJECT TO ALABAMA RIGHT OF REDEMPTION LAWS. 3/2 BRICK HOME ACROSS FROM SEMMES MIDDLE SCHOOL. GREAT FLOOR PLAN WITH OPEN KITCHEN AREA WITH LOTS OF CABINETS AND A PANTRY. TRAY CEILING IN LIVING ROOM. WALK IN CLOSETS IN ALL BEDROOMS. CONCRETE PATIO. ONE CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $718 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$233/yr (+$19/mo · 48.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$485
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,317
• − Management: −$1,317
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$581
• After-tax cash flow: $1,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,039

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.70%
• Current HPI: 282.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+151.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-11 Listed $175,000 GCMLS AL
• 2017-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-30 Sold (MLS) $70,000 BCAR
• 2014-03-22 Listed $69,500 BCAR

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $485 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.