4210 E Louisiana Ave · Tampa, FL 33610

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1960 5,225 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NO HOA!! NO CDD!! Charming 3 bedroom 1 bath home features distinctive cedar plank ceilings that add a touch of rustic charm to the living spaces, providing a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy the benefits of a large fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or providing ample space for pets and children to play.

Key facts

• Cedar plank ceilings
• 5,225 sq ft lot
• Built 1960

Tags

• CEDAR PLANK CEILINGS
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($454/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $215k implies a 3483% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,388 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-37,507
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-49,194
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33610

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,704 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $160	-5% $99	+0% $38	+5% $-23	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-29	+0% $38	+5% $105	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $93	base $38	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4506 N 42nd St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.5	792	$1,900	$2.40	0d	1	0.27mi
3910 E Ellicott St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	25d	1	0.27mi
5204 N 45th St Apt B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,350	$1.92	25d	1	0.37mi
3706 E Shadowlawn Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,950	$1.81	11d	1	0.49mi
4811 E Curtis St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	891	$797	$0.89	25d	1	0.51mi
3612 E Osborne Ave Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	576	$1,600	$2.78	25d	1	0.53mi
3625 E Mohawk Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	1110	$1,750	$1.58	15d	1	0.65mi
3705 E North Bay St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	969	$1,850	$1.91	4d	1	0.66mi
3408 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit 8 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	654	$1,495	$2.29	17d	1	0.84mi
3408 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Apt 3 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	654	$1,625	$2.48	25d	1	0.84mi
3408 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit 8 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	654	$1,495	$2.29	21d	1	0.84mi
3408 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit 4 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	654	$1,575	$2.41	25d	1	0.84mi
3408 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit 5 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	654	$1,595	$2.44	15d	1	0.84mi
3917 E Hanna Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	846	$2,100	$2.48	25d	1	0.94mi
3001 E McBerry St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,945	$1.74	5d	1	0.96mi
6209 N 43rd St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,650	$2.46	22d	1	0.98mi
6209 N 43rd St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,595	$2.37	2d	1	0.98mi
3919 E Fern St Apt 4 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	704	$1,075	$1.53	25d	1	1.03mi
3022 Deleuil Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,850	$1.76	20d	1	1.03mi
3507 E 29th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,700	$1.83	25d	1	1.07mi
4204 N 29th St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	957	$1,800	$1.88	25d	1	1.16mi
3417 Temple St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	975	$1,600	$1.64	25d	1	1.18mi
3421 N Whittier St Apt B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	5d	1	1.25mi
3405 N 34th St Unit C Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$795	$1.32	3d	1	1.26mi
4007 E Pocahontas Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	25d	1	1.27mi
3212 N 50th St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1005	$2,200	$2.19	15d	1	1.28mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	11d	1	1.28mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	25d	1	1.28mi
2501 E Chelsea St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	22d	1	1.31mi
3001 E Jean St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	999	$1,695	$1.70	25d	1	1.34mi
2925 N 46th St Unit B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,103	$0.98	25d	1	1.39mi
3420 N 55th St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,500	$1.37	25d	1	1.41mi
2402 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit 4 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	610	$800	$1.31	11d	1	1.43mi
2402 E Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	710	$1,699	$2.39	25d	1	1.43mi
4102 Oak Knoll Ct Apt 1 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	690	$1,250	$1.81	25d	1	1.46mi
4102 Oak Knoll Ct Unit 01 020 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	890	$1,500	$1.69	25d	1	1.46mi
4102 Oak Knoll Ct Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,375	$1.51	3d	56	1.46mi
3826 Lakeshore Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,100	$1.35	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-11-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-11
   listed $215,000 Active
3. 1982-04-01
   soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$690/yr (+$58/mo · 63.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$790
• After-tax cash flow: $1,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,587
• Household income: $54,209
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2431.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 22% White 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 18% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.81%
• Current HPI: 428.9741
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.72%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3483.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1982-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+30.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,094 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.