118 Samantha Way · Canyonville, OR 97417

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 420 Days on market

Built 2001 $85/sqft · 9% below area Est $131k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED IN KNOLL TERRACE MOBILE HOME PARK IN THE SMALL TOWN OF CANYONVILLE, OREGON. THIS IS A VERY NICE 55 PLUS, GATED COMMUNITY. THIS HOME SHOWS LIKE NEW! IT COMES WITH A GREAT OVERSIZED 2 CAR GARAGE, NICE BACKYARD, RV STORAGE AND GATED PARK ENTRANCE. COME SEE AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Gated park entrance
• Backyard

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• BACKYARD
• RV STORAGE
• GATED PARK ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $589 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#183 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• South Umpqua SD 19 (town): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #51 of 58 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 420 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $119k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 420 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.22%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,291
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -9.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
381 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,404 (0%)	9mo	$139,500	$99	82
112 Brenda Pl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+1%)	20mo	$126,000	$89	80
150 Kimberly Way	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-4%)	6mo	$97,000	$72	78
167 Kimberly Way	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-4%)	2mo	$110,000	$81	78
183 Samantha Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+4%)	18mo	$119,500	$82	75
135 Samantha Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+4%)	22mo	$100,000	$69	74
175 Knoll Terrace Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,367 (-3%)	20mo	$111,250	$81	72
102 Kimberly Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,457 (+4%)	22mo	$120,000	$82	71
190 Wild Creek Way	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (0%)	12mo	$114,000	$81	70
450 Sandra Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+8%)	16mo	$255,000	$169	58
601 Fairchild St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-14%)	23mo	$199,000	$164	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $18,217
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $64,087
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97417

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $589

Break-even live

Break-even rent $941

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $657	-5% $623	+0% $589	+5% $555	+10% $522
Rent	-10% $456	-5% $523	+0% $589	+5% $656	+10% $722
Rate	-1.0pp $649	-0.5pp $619	base $589	+0.5pp $558	+1.0pp $527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
325 S Pine St Canyonville, OR	4.0	1.0	1640	$1,800	$1.10	44d	1	0.42mi
450 Maylea Pl Canyonville, OR	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,500	$1.22	44d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,000 Active 420 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 419 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 418 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 417 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 416 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 414 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 413 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 410 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 409 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 408 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 405 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 403 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 402 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 401 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 400 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $119,000 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED IN KNOLL TERRACE MOBILE HOME PARK IN THE SMALL TOWN OF CANYONVILLE, OREGON. THIS IS A VERY NICE 55 PLUS, GATED COMMUNITY. THIS HOME SHOWS LIKE NEW! IT COMES WITH A GREAT OVERSIZED 2 CAR GARAGE, NICE BACKYARD, RV STORAGE AND GATED PARK ENTRANCE. COME SEE AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME!

17. 2025-10-29
    price $129,000 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED IN KNOLL TERRACE MOBILE HOME PARK IN THE SMALL TOWN OF CANYONVILLE, OREGON. THIS IS A VERY NICE 55 PLUS, GATED COMMUNITY. THIS HOME SHOWS LIKE NEW! IT COMES WITH A GREAT OVERSIZED 2 CAR GARAGE, NICE BACKYARD, RV STORAGE AND GATED PARK ENTRANCE. COME SEE AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME!

18. 2025-04-25
    listed $142,000 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED IN KNOLL TERRACE MOBILE HOME PARK IN THE SMALL TOWN OF CANYONVILLE, OREGON. THIS IS A VERY NICE 55 PLUS, GATED COMMUNITY. THIS HOME SHOWS LIKE NEW! IT COMES WITH A GREAT OVERSIZED 2 CAR GARAGE, NICE BACKYARD, RV STORAGE AND GATED PARK ENTRANCE. COME SEE AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME!

19. 2013-06-27
    soldstatus $44,000 Sold 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Beautiful Golden West Manufactured home in Canyonville's premier retirement community. 1404 Sqft.,3bd, 2ba, open floor plan, 2 car garage. Heat pump, Range,Refrigerator,Washer & Dryer Included. New interior paint and buyer can choose new carpetingwith carpet allowance.

20. 2013-06-05
    status Pending 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Beautiful Golden West Manufactured home in Canyonville's premier retirement community. 1404 Sqft.,3bd, 2ba, open floor plan, 2 car garage. Heat pump, Range,Refrigerator,Washer & Dryer Included. New interior paint and buyer can choose new carpetingwith carpet allowance.

21. 2013-04-08
    price $44,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Beautiful Golden West Manufactured home in Canyonville's premier retirement community. 1404 Sqft.,3bd, 2ba, open floor plan, 2 car garage. Heat pump, Range,Refrigerator,Washer & Dryer Included. New interior paint and buyer can choose new carpetingwith carpet allowance.

22. 2013-02-22
    listed $49,900 Active 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Beautiful Golden West Manufactured home in Canyonville's premier retirement community. 1404 Sqft.,3bd, 2ba, open floor plan, 2 car garage. Heat pump, Range,Refrigerator,Washer & Dryer Included. New interior paint and buyer can choose new carpetingwith carpet allowance.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 37.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $5,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $5,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Umpqua SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111610
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,796
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7976
• State rank: #51 of 58 in OR

Livability — Canyonville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #11206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyonville, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,462

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.05%
• Current HPI: 339.7648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+138.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $119,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $129,000 RMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $142,000 RMLS
• 2013-06-27 Sold (MLS) $44,000 RMLS
• 2013-06-05 Pending — RMLS
• 2013-04-08 Price Changed $44,000 RMLS
• 2013-02-22 Listed $49,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $839 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.