Is 15811 Oak Leaf Gap Dr in Crosby, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 2.8% cap rate and $-1,618/mo modeled cash flow at a $329,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 15811 Oak Leaf Gap Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 2.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,219/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 25.15

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Cash flow +3.8/30.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.9/5.0
1% rule +0.4/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$329,990

15811 Oak Leaf Gap Dr · Crosby, TX 77532

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,147 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Popular ranch-style home on a premium corner lot! The Avery plan features a thoughtfully designed one-story layout with an open-concept kitchen flowing seamlessly into the spacious great room-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. An enclosed study provides a private space for working from home or creative pursuits, while the covered patio extends your living space outdoors for relaxing or dining al fresco. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with an upgraded deluxe bath for added luxury. With four bedrooms and three baths, there's plenty of room for family and guests. Showcasing the AW Collection® Oxford, this home features rich wood-stained cabinetry and timeless, elegant finishes. Enjoy community amenities including a scenic lake with trails, pool, parks, and playgrounds, plus convenient access to freeways, schools, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

Premium corner lot
Spacious great room
Open-concept kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (45.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (32.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $179k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1723 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,610 (45.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.54% ✗
Cap rate: 2.83%
Cash-on-cash: -12.37%
DSCR: 0.45
GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $412,749
List price: $329,990
Delta: -20.05%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17810 Pine Street St	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,188 (+2%)	4mo	$409,000	$187	67
4700 Harvey Rd	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,998 (-7%)	8mo	$545,000	$273	59
17909 Oak St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,338 (+9%)	3mo	$509,000	$218	45
17205 Adlong School Rd	1.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,968 (-8%)	9mo	$615,000	$313	37
4335 Harvey Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,504 (+17%)	3mo	$449,000	$179	35
17809 Pine St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-22%)	20mo	$143,000	$85	27
17006 Adlong School Rd	1.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,953 (-9%)	19mo	$399,999	$205	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -51.3%
Equity multiple: -0.50×
Total profit: $-172,930
Equity at exit: $61,542

10-year hold

IRR: —
Equity multiple: -1.55×
Total profit: $-295,160
Equity at exit: $35,687

Cash invested: $115,570 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 2 active · 5 under contract
Months of supply: 4.0 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $329,990 ($159/sqft)
Median days on market: 55 d
This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +20.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

Home prices YoY: -28.6%
Rents YoY: 1.5%
Active inventory: 1723
Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,219 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,165
Tax est. 1.5%: −$516 /mo · $6,191/yr
Insurance: −$172
Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
HOA: −$92
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
Net cashflow: $-1,618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,267

Max offer price $178,610

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,333	-5% $-1,475	+0% $-1,618	+5% $-1,761	+10% $-1,903
Rent	-10% $-1,793	-5% $-1,706	+0% $-1,618	+5% $-1,530	+10% $-1,443
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,410	-0.5pp $-1,513	base $-1,618	+0.5pp $-1,725	+1.0pp $-1,834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $103,187
Closing costs: $12,382
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Community curbsAssociation present with annual fee (approximately $1,100/year) — association name TBD

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garageAttached garage parking
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: New construction (under construction)Residential propertySlab foundationComposition roofBuilt by Ashton WoodsTwo-story model implied (living area provided)Living area approximately 2,147
Construction: Brick and stone exteriorYear built 2026
Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardBack yard fencingSubdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveWall ovenDisposal
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)Office (first floor) — can function as a bedroom/bonus roomFamily room (first floor)
Flooring: CarpetPlank-style flooringTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (gas)
Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatThermostat energy efficient feature
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $92/mo · $1,104/yr

Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $329,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $329,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $329,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $329,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $329,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $329,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $329,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $329,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $329,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $329,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $329,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $329,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $329,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $329,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $329,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $329,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $329,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-31

days on marketlisting id $329,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $329,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $329,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $329,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-25

pricedays on market $329,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $334,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $334,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $334,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $334,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $334,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $334,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $334,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $334,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $334,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $334,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $334,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $334,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $334,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $334,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $334,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $334,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $334,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $334,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $334,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $334,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $334,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $334,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $334,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $334,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-28

pricedays on market $334,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $344,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $344,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $344,990 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $26,626
− Mortgage interest: −$23,120
− Property taxes: −$6,191
− Insurance: −$7,182
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
− Management: −$2,130
− HOA: −$1,104
− Depreciation: −$12,007
Taxable loss: −$27,239

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,537
After-tax cash flow: $-12,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Installing new flooring in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile to increase value. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Crosby Middle F TX #786/1,662 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Highpoint School East (Crosby)

Schools (NCES district)

District: Crosby ISD
NCES district ID: 4815750
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $61,079
Composite: 35.14/100
National rank: #5012
State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

Score: 59/100
State rank: #1121
US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 33,780
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 33,780
Household income: $92,201
Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
Current HPI: 264.0126
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-06-29 Price Changed $364,990 HARMLS
2026-06-03 Price Changed $369,990 Zillow
2026-06-02 Price Changed $369,990 HARMLS
2026-05-30 Listed $384,587 Zillow
2026-05-29 Listed $384,587 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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