904 Millcreek Rd · Pocahontas, AR 72455

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 748 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1940 0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Sloped lot; Wooded lot

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($839/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.6% in Pocahontas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#37 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• Pocahontas School District (rural): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #165 of 238 in AR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Alma Spikes Elementary School (645 students, 67% FRL); Pocahontas Junior High School (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #146 of 201 statewide, top 74%, 503 students, 53% FRL); Pocahontas High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #187 of 292 statewide, top 70%, 411 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $140k implies a 337% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,183 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,776
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2001 Bledsoe St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	833 (+11%)	9mo	$93,000	$112	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-18,290
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,498
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72455

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $292/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,033

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $110	+0% $70	+5% $-129	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $26	+0% $70	+5% $114	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $106	base $70	+0.5pp $34	+1.0pp $-3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $139,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $292 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$603/yr (+$50/mo · 206.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$292
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,077
• − Management: −$1,077
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$382
• After-tax cash flow: $1,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocahontas School District
• NCES district ID: 0511610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $37,399
• Composite: 23.36/100
• National rank: #7907
• State rank: #165 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pocahontas

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #6525

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocahontas, AR
• Population (ZIP): 13,572

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,421 people
• By 2030: 15,733 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 14,296 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 12,884 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 9,535 · -41.9%
• By 2100: 6,520 · -60.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Pacific Islander 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.7) · D 17.1% · R 80.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -63.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.7 2020: R+60.8 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.61%
• Current HPI: 179.3505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+832.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $139,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2016-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $292 · +123.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.