1613 Forestburgh Rd · Eldred, NY 12737

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1988 1.00 ac lot Est $276k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Split-Level Ranch with Expansion Potential in Glen Spey, Sullivan County, NY Welcome to 1613 Forestburgh Road — a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom split-level ranch offering 1,248 square feet of comfortable living space in the scenic Hudson Valley community of Glen Spey, New York. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or looking for a weekend retreat in Sullivan County, this property checks all the boxes. When entering the kitchen you'll immediately appreciate the sliding glass doors that open directly onto a deck — perfect for morning coffee, summer entertaining, or simply enjoying the fresh Catskill mountain air. The spacious backyard offers plenty of room for outdoor activities,

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Private driveway
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• DECK
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• UNFINISHED WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected (Orange & Rockland); Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Chandelier; Eat-in kitchen; Original details; Storage; Deck (patio/porch feature); Unfinished attic; Unfinished basement with walk-out access; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.3% in Eldred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 242 students, 38% FRL); Eldred Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 230 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,964 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,808
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
62 Stefanyk Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	7mo	$265,000	$221	65
7 Hoyt Rd	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (+7%)	5mo	$210,000	$157	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $122,509
• Equity at exit: $225,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $371,797
• Equity at exit: $485,693

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12737

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$436 /mo · $5,229/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,343

Max offer price $211,849

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-145	+0% $-216	+5% $-287	+10% $-357
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-298	+0% $-216	+5% $-134	+10% $-52
Rate	-1.0pp $-90	-0.5pp $-152	base $-216	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,999 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,999 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,999 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,999 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,999 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,999 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,999 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,999 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,999 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,999 Active 13 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $249,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,229 · $436/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,229 · $436/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,229
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,655
• After-tax cash flow: $-937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eldred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,817

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 132.02%
• Current HPI: 443.8248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $249,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,229 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.