11795 Old Halls Ferry Rd · Black Jack, MO 63033

$185,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,141 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1966 0.31 ac lot $162/sqft · 9% below area Est $204k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Price improvement! This inviting Florissant home truly fits what families are looking for — space, comfort, and everyday convenience. The living room is bright and airy. There is a primary bedroom with ensuite bathroom, as well as 2 other bedrooms and another full bath in the hallway. The eat-in kitchen feels spacious with modern appliances. The finished basement offers a * 3rd * full bath and room to really make the space your own with a den/living area/studio. The oversized yard is great for kids, pets, or anyone who enjoys spending time outdoors. The home is move-in ready, with plenty of opportunity to update and make it your own over time. Just minutes from parks, schools, shopp

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick, concrete, and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Front yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (2 on main level, 1 in lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Attic fan; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Commons Lane Elementary (291 students, 99% FRL); Mccluer North High (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #487 of 521 statewide, top 93%, 1,136 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $185k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,278 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.92%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,770
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -9.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11879 Galba Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-4%)	0mo	$159,900	$146	82
4377 Varano Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+1%)	2mo	$150,000	$130	82
4493 Caracalla Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+1%)	7mo	$190,000	$165	78
4950 Patricia Ridge Dr	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,124 (-2%)	4mo	$177,500	$158	73
4384 Remus Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-1%)	2mo	$209,900	$186	73
12415 Danube Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,124 (-2%)	6mo	$150,000	$133	69
11678 Galba Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+13%)	2mo	$129,900	$101	67
11882 Nero Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,080 (-5%)	3mo	$209,900	$194	66
29 Brixworth Ct	0.42mi	3/3.0	1,280 (+12%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	56
4333 Caracalla Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,271 (+11%)	3mo	$225,000	$177	56
4394 Satiris Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+14%)	0mo	$235,000	$181	47
11565 Mehl Ave	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,270 (+11%)	4mo	$81,000	$64	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $117,175
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.93×
• Total profit: $359,105
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,630/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,603

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	0.20mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	0.27mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	43d	3	0.43mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	1d	17	0.44mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	43d	1	0.85mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	1d	1	1.11mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	23d	1	1.30mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	23d	1	1.41mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	7d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $200,000 Active 782-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   historical $200,000 782-char remark
3. 2026-04-03
   status Active
4. 2026-03-02
   price $214,900
5. 2026-03-01
   status Active
6. 2025-11-25
   listed $219,900 Active
7. 2025-11-24
   historical
8. 1999-01-06
   soldstatus $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,630 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,630 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,630
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$367
• After-tax cash flow: $1,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+125.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Coming Soon $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $214,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Listed $219,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,630 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.