None · Estero, FL 33928

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 820 sqft · Land · 6 Days on market

Built 2025 3,876 sqft lot $150/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of coastal charm, modern comfort, and an unbeatable location in this brand-new home located in the highly desirable Mariners Cove community in Estero, Southwest Florida. Never occupied and move-in ready, this beautifully designed 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers the rare opportunity to enjoy new construction in a peaceful waterfront neighborhood with direct access to the Estero River and the Gulf. Inside, you'll find a thoughtfully designed split-bedroom floor plan that provides privacy and functionality for both owners and guests. The bright and inviting interior features attractive wood-look laminate flooring throughout, creating a seamless flow from room to room while offering durability and easy maintenance. The open-concept living and dining areas provide an ideal setting for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying the Florida lifestyle. The well-appointed kitchen is equipped with Frigidaire appliances, ample cabinetry, and generous counter space, making meal preparation both convenient and enjoyable. Adjacent to the kitchen is a spacious laundry room with additional storage potential, helping keep your living spaces organized and clutter-free. Situated on an oversized 46-foot-wide lot, this property offers exceptional outdoor possibilities. There is plenty of room to add a screened lanai, outdoor patio, or tropical garden retreat where you can enjoy morning coffee, evening sunsets, and year-round outdoor living. The expansive lot also provides abundant parking space for multiple vehicles, as well as your boat, jet skis, golf cart, or other recreational equipment. Mariners Cove is a hidden waterfront gem that offers residents an active and relaxed coastal lifestyle. Just steps from your front door, you'll find the community pool, clubhouse, and private boat ramp, providing easy access to boating, fishing, kayaking, and exploring the scenic waterways of Southwest Florida. Spend your days cruising the Estero River, heading out to the Gulf, or enjoying the area's beautiful white-sand beaches. Conveniently located near premier shopping destinations, popular restaurants, entertainment venues, and championship golf courses, this home combines tranquility with accessibility. Whether you're searching for a year-round residence, seasonal getaway, or investment opportunity, this exceptional property offers the best of Florida living in one of Estero's most charming waterfront communities. Come experience the laid-back coastal lifestyle you deserve at Mariners Cove, where every day feels like a vacation. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered

Key facts

• New construction
• 3,876 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• WATERFRONT NEIGHBORHOOD
• DIRECT ACCESS TO ESTERO RIVER
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD-LOOK LAMINATE FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AND DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: MH-2; Development: Mariners Cove; Directions: US 41 to Broadway. Garden Dr is the first left off of Broadway. House is on the left at the end of the street.; Possession at closing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Monthly master HOA fee of $150; Annual recurring fees $1,800; one-time fees $3,650; HOA covers recreation facilities and water; Professional management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community room, marina, community boat ramp, community boat dock, BBQ/picnic area, shuffleboard, and streetlights; Community type: Boating, Non-gated

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Manufactured building design; 1 story; 2025 construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Boat ramp and community boat dock with water available at dock; Regular lot; Rear exposure to the east; Restrictions: Deeded, No RV; View: See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop - Electric; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with tub only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet; Split bedroom floor plan; Dining area (family); Laundry in residence; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Laundry located in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-463/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (4.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $159k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,188 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.46%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-33,538
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-52,854
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $944/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,969

Max offer price $152,188

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4751 Lafayette Ln W Estero, FL	2.0	1.0	584	$1,550	$2.65	24d	1	0.67mi
19760 Osprey Cove Blvd #145 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$1,500	$1.34	10d	1	1.10mi
19600 Veduro Cir Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$1,970	$1.98	14d	11	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $159,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$375/yr (+$31/mo · 39.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$944
• − Insurance: −$5,914
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$681
• After-tax cash flow: $218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+174.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $159,000 MIML
• 2026-06-12 Listed $159,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $159,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $179,999 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $199,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-05-27 Listed $219,900 FORTMLS
• 2011-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $944 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.