358 Lucia Way · Cleveland, TX 77327

$126,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $92/sqft · 44% below area Est $226k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Denley Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, all of which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $127k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tarkington Early Childhood School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 193 students, 66% FRL); Tarkington Middle (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 414 students, 58% FRL); Tarkington H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 513 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 2304 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,751 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.55%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,113
• List price: $126,990
• Delta: -43.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 County Road 2802	2.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+6%)	13mo	$99,695	$68	40
40 County Road 2801	1.97mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-9%)	13mo	$159,900	$128	34
1203 County Road 2222	2.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,406 (+2%)	26mo	$315,000	$224	32
39 County Road 2800	2.18mi	4/2.0	1,484 (+8%)	49mo	$180,000	$121	32
12647 Highway 105	1.99mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (+5%)	55mo	$175,300	$121	32
49 County Road 2802	2.07mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+10%)	56mo	$240,000	$159	28
12939 Highway 105	2.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-10%)	17mo	$189,900	$154	28
1907 County Road 2252	1.46mi	4/2.0	1,568 (+14%)	28mo	$235,000	$150	22
282 County Road 2801	2.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-12%)	37mo	$160,000	$132	21
234 County Road 2801	2.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-12%)	48mo	$115,000	$95	21
42 County Road 2802	2.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-12%)	49mo	$149,999	$123	21
152 County Road 2800	2.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-18%)	57mo	$125,000	$112	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $17,881
• Equity at exit: $18,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $70,941
• Equity at exit: $10,980

Cash invested: $35,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active
• Median asking: $148,990 ($125/sqft)
• Median days on market: 16 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +31.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 2304
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$159 /mo · $1,905/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,195

Max offer price $126,990

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $660	-5% $616	+0% $572	+5% $528	+10% $484
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $496	+0% $572	+5% $648	+10% $724
Rate	-1.0pp $636	-0.5pp $604	base $572	+0.5pp $539	+1.0pp $506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,748
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $162,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Denley plan)
• Construction: New construction (spec home)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,375

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Denley plan)Active listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-07
   days on market $126,990 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-11-06
   days on market $126,990 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-11-05
   days on market $126,990 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $126,990 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-11-02
   days on market $131,990 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-11-01
   days on market $131,990 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-10-31
   days on market $131,990 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-10-30
   pricedays on market $131,990 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   pricedays on marketlisting id $136,990 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $164,990 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $164,990 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $164,990 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $164,990 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $164,990 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $164,990 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $164,990 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $164,990 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $164,990 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $164,990 Active 110 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $164,990 Active 109 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $164,990 Active 108 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $164,990 Active 107 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $164,990 Active 106 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $164,990 Active 105 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $164,990 Active 104 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $164,990 Active 103 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $164,990 Active 102 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $164,990 Active 101 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $164,990 Active 100 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $164,990 Active 99 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $164,990 Active 98 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $164,990 Active 97 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $164,990 Active 96 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $164,990 Active 95 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $164,990 Active 94 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $164,990 Active 93 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $164,990 Active 92 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $164,990 Active 91 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $164,990 Active 90 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $164,990 Active 89 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $164,990 Active 88 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $164,990 Active 87 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $164,990 Active 86 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $164,990 Active 85 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $164,990 Active 84 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $164,990 Active 83 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $164,990 Active 82 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $164,990 Active 81 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $164,990 Active 80 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $164,990 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,113
• − Property taxes: −$1,905
• − Insurance: −$1,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$3,694
• Taxable income: $5,201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,248
• After-tax cash flow: $5,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tarkington Early Childhood School F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Tarkington Middle F TX #704/1,662 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 High Tarkington H S F TX #821/1,632 Nat'l #8,293/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $162,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Denley plan)
• Construction: New construction (spec home)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,375

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Denley plan)Active listing