853 Avenue R NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$264,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · Land · 25 Days on market

Built 2026 8,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BEAUTIFUL NEW CONSTRUCTION 3BR/2BA/2CG SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE LOCATED IN CENTRAL WINTER HAVEN. NO HOA OR CDD! CONVENIENT TO BOTH TAMPA AND ORLANDO. THIS HOME IS THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED WITH SIGNATURE QUALITY THAT OFFERS OPEN-CONCENT LAYOUT WITH LAKE VIEW FROM YOUR FRONT PORCH. SOME INTERIOR FEATURES OF THIS HOME INCLUDE: STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, TREY CEILING IN THE PRIMARY BEDROOM, QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS IN THE KITCHEN AND BATHS, WALK IN PANTRY, WALK IN CLOSET IN THE PRIMARY, CEILING FANS IN THE LIVING ROOM AND BEDROOMS, AS WELL AS BLINDS IN ALL THE WINDOWS. DON'T MISS THE OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A BRAND-NEW HOME AT A FANTASTIC PRICE.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New construction
• Lake view

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• LAKE VIEW
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK IN PANTRY
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lot approximately 0.2 acre; Permit number 2025-00110580
• HOA & community: No association reported

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Faces south; New construction; Completed condition
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by J&S Contracting & Development, LLC
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Paved road access; Lake view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Ice maker; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-337 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,639 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-65,970
• Equity at exit: $39,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-91,787
• Equity at exit: $22,860

Cash invested: $74,032 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,387
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,966/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,313

Max offer price $215,641

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,100
• Closing costs: $7,932
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2007 9th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	23d	1	0.16mi
251 Krenson Bay Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,250	$1.22	23d	1	0.27mi
1550 11th St NE Unit G3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,325	$1.15	14d	1	0.46mi
1331 11th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,190	$1.82	23d	1	0.49mi
2418 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	3d	1	0.56mi
2451 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1870	$2,400	$1.28	23d	1	0.62mi
1200 6th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,585	$1.29	14d	1	0.63mi
1314 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,890	$1.16	3d	1	0.71mi
1314 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,940	$1.19	14d	1	0.71mi
324 Avenue Y NE Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,550	$1.71	23d	1	0.76mi
1225 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,940	$1.19	14d	1	0.77mi
1225 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,890	$1.16	3d	1	0.77mi
1708 2nd St NW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,525	$1.52	23d	1	0.79mi
1830 2nd St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,600	$1.49	23d	1	0.79mi
235 Palmetto Ave NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,195	$1.17	23d	1	0.87mi
4137 Roberta Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,875	$1.14	19d	1	0.88mi
1705 3rd St NW Unit A Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	0.89mi
4117 Sophia Blvd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1748	$1,999	$1.14	3d	1	0.91mi
295 Lake Smart Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,100	$1.22	23d	1	0.94mi
395 Quentin Ave NW Unit 397 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	912	$1,450	$1.59	23d	1	0.96mi
2144 Rose Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1857	$1,850	$1.00	3d	1	0.99mi
1581 Lemon Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,176	$1.19	21d	1	1.00mi
2429 Twin Lake View Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,350	$1.26	14d	1	1.00mi
904 15th St NE Unit 1520445P Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1732	$4,909	$2.83	3d	1	1.06mi
245 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	3d	1	1.10mi
242 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,350	$1.26	14d	1	1.12mi
502 Winter Ter #121 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	23d	1	1.19mi
207 S Lake Silver Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,399	$1.25	23d	1	1.23mi
350 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,425	$1.33	23d	1	1.24mi
850 17th Ter NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1206	$1,520	$1.26	3d	1	1.27mi
700 Mirror Ter NW #705 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,500	$1.26	3d	1	1.30mi
407 Avenue A SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,700	$1.51	23d	1	1.49mi
103 4th St SE Unit A Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,399	$1.38	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   price $264,400
3. 2026-04-21
   listed $264,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,811
• − Property taxes: −$3,966
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,811
• − Management: −$1,811
• − Depreciation: −$7,692
• Taxable loss: −$8,775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,106
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $264,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid