3425 Paint Rd · Copperopolis, CA 95222

$276,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 386 Days on market

Built 1997 27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 27.18 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1997

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RR-20
• HOA & community: Community allows biking

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (including 2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Water: Other; Sewer: Sewer or septic - unknown
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; No accessory dwelling unit (ADU)
• Construction: No common walls; Year built source: Other
• Exterior features: No pool; Lot described as 0–1 unit/acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry on main level
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.0% in Copperopolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#691 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bret Harte Union High (town): math 35% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #429 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 386 days — a 12% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→5/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 386 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-37,605
• Equity at exit: $41,227

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-23,507
• Equity at exit: $23,907

Cash invested: $77,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95222

• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,450
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,197/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,319

Max offer price $276,500

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,125
• Closing costs: $8,295
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,500 Active 386 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,500 Active 385 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,500 Active 384 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,500 Active 383 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $276,500 Active 381 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $276,500 Active 378 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,500 Active 377 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,500 Active 376 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $276,500 Active 375 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $276,500 Active 372 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,500 Active 371 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,500 Active 370 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,500 Active 369 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,500 Active 368 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $276,500 Active 367 DOM
16. 2025-12-12
    price $276,500
17. 2025-10-27
    price $306,000
18. 2025-09-12
    price $378,250
19. 2025-05-28
    listed $202,793 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,197 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,197 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 3 d/yr ≥103°F today · 5 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,488
• − Property taxes: −$3,197
• − Insurance: −$1,382
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,363
• − Management: −$2,363
• − Depreciation: −$8,044
• Taxable loss: −$3,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$791
• After-tax cash flow: $2,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bret Harte Union High
• NCES district ID: 0605940
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,974
• Composite: 45.41/100
• National rank: #5708
• State rank: #429 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Copperopolis

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #691
• US rank: #21010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,666

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Russian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.93%
• Current HPI: 137.7432
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+36.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $276,500 CRMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $306,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $378,250 CRMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listed $202,793 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,197 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.